411
FXUS64 KJAN 171115
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
615 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Today and Tonight...

Overall forecast for the short term period remains on track with no
major adjustment made. HREF model guidance is starting to pick up on
some early morning fog potential mainly across the Golden Triangle
and southwest portions of the area. Early morning hi-res guidance
continue to show a stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast.
This combined with the presence of leftover tropical moisture will
allow for afternoon/early evening scattered showers and storms
generally for areas along and south of I-20. Forecast confidence is
much higher today given that the latest GFS/NAM continues holds onto
rain chances through late Tuesday afternoon. The presence cloud
cover combined with scattered storms will help keep afternoon highs
in the upper 80s across our CWA. Later this evening, rain chances
will begin to diminish leading to quiet conditions across our
forecast area with overnight low dropping into the mid 60s. With
that being said, continued saturated soil conditions along with
stable overnight conditions will help heightened widespread fog
development heading into the overnight period. Conditions will
continued to be evaluated for any potential dense advisories as we
get closer to early Wednesday morning. /CR/

Wednesday through Monday: With the exception of Wednesday afternoon
where there will be low chances of afternoon showers in our south,
dry weather is expected through Monday. Our normal lows run in the
lower 60s while our normal highs run in the mid 80s. Much of the
forecast period will see above normal morning lows and afternoon
highs.

Come Wednesday morning our CWA will still be on the back side of an
upper level trough with a weak center of high pressure to our north.
A stalled frontal boundary will be just to the south of our
southeast most zones. The surface high will remain in place but the
upper level trough will shift east through the day with shortwave
ridging aloft moving over our CWA. Model consensus develops a few
showers during the heat of the day and spreads the activity into our
southern zones. This convection is expected to dissipate by early
evening. With the shortwave ridge axis and the surface ridge across
our CWA Thursday, temperatures will top out a degree or two warmer
and convection will be inhibited. The ridging surface and aloft will
change its orientation across our region but remain dominant through
Monday. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A mixture of MVFR/IFR and LIFR ceilings is occurring across all TAF
sites to start off the TAF period. Ceilings will begin to improve to
MVFR status starting a little after 14Z Tuesday as the cloud
conditions start to improve. Scattered showers along with a few
isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly for areas along and
south of the I-20 corridor starting around 15Z Tuesday. MVFR
conditions will continue through 20Z Tuesday before improving to VFR
status by 21Z Tuesday. Weather conditions will remain quiet through
the evening. Widespread patchy fog will start to occur across
central Mississippi staring around 05Z Wednesday causing all TAF
sites to drop to a mixture of MVFR/IFR and LIFR ceilings. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  68  88  66 /  40   0  10   0
Meridian      86  64  89  64 /  20   0  10   0
Vicksburg     85  68  88  66 /  30   0  10   0
Hattiesburg   86  70  90  69 /  50  10  20   0
Natchez       85  69  88  68 /  40   0  10   0
Greenville    85  64  86  63 /  20   0   0   0
Greenwood     88  65  88  64 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/22/CR