841
FXUS64 KJAN 251941
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
241 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Tonight through Friday: Tonight the weakening cold front will have
progressed through a majority of the area ending the showery
activity across our area. Longwave troughing will continue as the
closed low begins to shift and reinforce itself in the lower
Mississippi River Valley, orienting itself near the Mississippi/
Arkansas/Tennessee boarder. Behind the front drier cooler air will
filter into the CWA dropping overnight temps into the low to mid
60s. A few select locations will even bottom out in the upper 50s in
the northern portions of the CWA.

By tomorrow the closed low will have bolstered itself into the
MS/ARK/TN boarder region as the frontal boundary further progresses
out of the area. This will serve as a kind of barrier, the frontal
boundary will limit moisture in the area as the drier air remains
entrenched. Additionally the orientation of the low will mitigate
direct impacts of Helene for a majority of the CWA. As the remnants
of Helene continue its track north, the associated tropical moisture
will become drawn into the closed low across northern MS. The
biggest impact will come in the form of the increased sky cover and
scattered shower chances (30-60%) north of I-20 beginning Thursday
evening through Friday. It is worth noting on Friday that if there
aren`t any breaks in the high cloud cover expected and rain is
continuous then max temps could struggle to reach what is forecast
(low 70s-low 80s) and max temps will likely remain in the range of
high 60s to lower 70s./KP/

Saturday through Wednesday...The governing weather pattern will
still be controlled by the mid/upper low across the Lower MS and
TN River Valleys. The cyclonic flow associated with this feature
will continue to support lift to provide some clouds with the
higher % coverage over the northern areas. Each day this will wane
some and look for less clouds as we start the work week. By
Monday, some shortwave ridging will edge into the area as the
large scale pattern adjusts to the next main weather feature. At
this time, the more favored pattern to evolve is for a W CONUS
(Rockies) ridge to build and allow for E CONUS troughing. The
result is for a solid cold front to push more southward in the
Wed/Thu periods. This would bring cooler/drier air to the area if
it plays out. Lots of time to watch trends over the coming days.
In summary for the day 4- 7 periods...Sensible weather will be
precip free and temps at seasonal values/ranges./CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Currently TAF sites will bounce around in category, varying cloud
bases and declining showery/storm activity in the region will
continue to impact TAF sites into early afternoon. By late
afternoon the front will have moved through the area and
conditions will improve, leaving all TAF sites in VFR/MVFR
conditions by 0Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  83  62  76 /  10   0  10  30
Meridian      63  83  61  76 /  10  10  20  30
Vicksburg     62  83  61  77 /  10   0  10  20
Hattiesburg   67  86  63  82 /  10   0   0  10
Natchez       64  82  60  79 /  10   0   0  10
Greenville    60  81  61  71 /   0   0  20  50
Greenwood     61  83  61  71 /   0   0  30  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/CME/