212
FXUS64 KJAN 261730 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Current GOES 16 visible satellite imagery from this morning continue
to show Hurricane Helene tracking ENE towards the Florida Big Bend.
With Helene inching closer to the Gulf Coast today, the resulting
tightening pressure gradient will lead to gusty north to northeast
winds around 20 mph through this afternoon. As Helene continues its
ENE track, late morning model guidance highlighting a closed low
circulating over western TN and western KY. This feature will
continue to wrap drier air across our CWA allowing for dry
conditions through this afternoon. Sky conditions will be generally
clear across central MS as current 12Z sounding observations
indicate a very dry environment with the air parcel unable to break
through the capping inversion around 700mb. The lack of cloud cover
combined with sufficient daytime heating will help afternoon highs
in the low 80s across the area. /CR/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Today and tonight: Although Hurricane Helene is forecast to make
land fall over the Florida Big Bend later this evening we will begin
to see its influence on our weather today and tonight. Today will be
dry but low chances of light rain associated with Helene will move
into the northern portions of our CWA tonight. As the Helene moves
closer to the Gulf coast today, the resulting tightening pressure
gradient will lead to gusty north to northeast winds around 20mph
this afternoon. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed
the circulation around a closed low spinning over western TN and
western Kentucky. This feature will continue to wrap drier air
across our CWA while drifting south into northern Mississippi this
evening. This evening while the closed low is over northern
Mississippi it will help draw rain associated with Helene south and
into our northern zones. This is expected after midnight. Otherwise,
temperatures will continue to be cooler than normal through the
period. /22/

Tropical moisture combined with a closed-low over the Mid-South will
continue to provide rain chances (20-70%), primarily along and north
of I-20 on Friday. The aforementioned low will slowly progress
towards the Northeast Atlantic over the weekend. Once the low
migrates, rain chances will gradually diminish before coming to an
end on Sunday. Ridging patter will begin to form over the southwest
Monday, bringing quiet conditions and near-zero precip chances to
the CWA through mid-week. Seasonal temperatures are expected to
continue through the period. By mid-week and beyond the extended: a
frontal boundary is expected to move towards the southeast, bringing
more drier/cooler air into the area. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR flight categories are expected areawide this aftn with gusty
north to northeast winds around 25mph at times. The gusty winds
will continue through the aftn before subsiding into early
evening, generally after 27/01-03Z Friday. VFR flight categories
are expected but some increased IFR ceilings are prevail tonight
at most TAF sites but MVFR ceilings & light rain is psbl at GTR &
low probs at MEI, after 27/09-15Z. Expect westerly winds to pick
back up, especially at GTR & MEI, after 27/14-16Z Friday. Winds
could gusts around 25mph again Friday aftn. Light rain from outer
bands of Helene could bring some gusty conditions at times into
Friday aftn. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  79  64  83 /  10  30  30   0
Meridian      61  79  63  82 /   0  20  20  10
Vicksburg     61  81  63  84 /   0  30  20   0
Hattiesburg   62  84  65  88 /   0  10   0   0
Natchez       59  82  64  85 /   0  10   0   0
Greenville    61  74  62  78 /  20  70  50  10
Greenwood     60  71  62  77 /  20  60  50  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/SW/DC