054
FXUS64 KJAN 242040
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
340 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

This Evening through Tomorrow:

Warm and humid conditions across the area today have afternoon
SBCAPE values around 3000-4000 J/kg, but forcing is minimal for new
storms to develop within our area through the rest of this evening.
An earlier disturbance across northern Mississippi shifting east
helped to trigger a few storms just north and just east of our CWA,
but the better chances for any storms will have to wait until later
this evening and overnight as convection developing along a front in
the Plains potentially moves southeastward. Several of the high-res
guidance members continue to show this potential, but overall
confidence in how the scenario plays out is low. We will maintain
the current Slight Risk for severe storms generally in the US
Highway 82 corridor during the evening and overnight hours, though
some strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out reaching the
Interstate 20 corridor late in the night. A Marginal Risk covers
those areas. With potential for any kind of MCS to swing through
late in the night and early morning Saturday, a Marginal Risk
continues into the daytime for northeast Mississippi. If rain
doesn`t spread too far south tonight, Saturday`s highs should
climb into the lower 90s. /NF/

Sunday through Friday:

Mid-level troughing will continue through early Sunday as
multiple rounds of short wave energy will swing through the
North/Northcentral MS. While Saturday night and throughout the day
Sunday are expected to be dry and clear with temperatures
expected to warm into the low 90s, a cold front will approach the
area from the northwest. As the main low moves into the Great
Lakes region the front will be forced down to our area as the warm
sector is enhanced. As our CWA will be in the warm sector as any
storms that form along and ahead of the approaching front in the
northern portions of the CWA will have favorable conditions to
turn severe. The primary risks will be damaging wind gusts, and
hail up to golf ball size thus a marginal risk has been issued
areas along the Hwy-82 corridor and a slight risk has been added
for the Bolivar County. This severe potential will be confined to
overnight into the early morning hours. Come Monday morning
potential for severe and rain chances will have ended. However,
Monday afternoon rain chances will return and linger into midday
Tuesday as the cold front passes through the area. Following the
passage of the front a surface high will begin building into area
from the northwest and the trough axis shifts eastward. By
Wednesday dry and cool conditions will ensue as northwest flow
will limit heating from the Gulf. We can expect ridging aloft to
keep conditions quiet through the end of the period. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions should prevail at the TAF sites until between 06Z
to 12Z Saturday. Some chance for SHRA and TSRA north of Interstate
20 after that time frame, and chances for low stratus south of
Interstate 20 in that time frame as well. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  91  72  92 /  10  10   0   0
Meridian      71  93  72  93 /  10  20   0   0
Vicksburg     73  91  72  92 /  10  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   73  94  72  93 /  10  10   0   0
Natchez       72  91  72  92 /  10  10   0   0
Greenville    73  89  74  92 /  50  40   0  10
Greenwood     71  90  74  92 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/KP/NF