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000
FXUS64 KJAN 222056
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
256 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tomorrow...

The ArkLaMiss is currently being influenced by an upper level ridge
and a strong high pressure that is now over over the Louisiana
coastal line. This upper level ridge and high pressure will continue
to shift east allowing the region to be dry the rest of the day,
tonight and for part of the day Sunday. Skies tonight will be partly
cloudy as clouds and moisture begin to increase from the west
shortly before midnight. Low temperatures will range from the the
upper 30s in the west and mid 30s in the east. Sunday will be mostly
cloudy and for much of the morning and early afternoon, we will
remain dry but as we get into the evening hours, light rain will
begin to approach from the west. The previous mentioned upper-level
ridge will get replaced with an upper-level long-wave trough which
will help increased moisture bring the return of rainy weather late
Sunday night. Rain will become more widespread by midnight and will
continue into Monday due to an approaching low pressure system. High
temperatures for Sunday will range from the upper 50s to near 60
degrees in the north and mid 60s elsewhere./JNE/

Sunday night through the week...

Upper ridging will slowly move off to the east as a shortwave trough
and surface low will slide across the Mid-South. As this occurs,  a
front will move through the region Monday into Tuesday. Southerly
flow over the weekend will allow moisture to move into the region
and some light to moderate rain will occur starting Sunday night and
continuing through Monday. QPF amounts are expected to be less than
one inch across the area. The entire system, including the front and
any rain, will be east of the ArkLaMiss by early Tuesday leaving us
with dry conditions for much of the rest of the week. The exception
to this will be when a much larger trough moves across the region on
Wednesday, and some wraparound moisture will bring some light rain
to mostly the northern part of the forecast area. However, it could
even be that any rainfall could remain just to the north of the
forecast area, more into northern Mississippi.

Temperatures during the early parts of the week ahead of the front
will be rather mild with highs in the 60s and perhaps some lower
70s. Following the frontal passage, highs will be in the 40s and 50s
for a couple of days before moderating once again toward the
weekend. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast
period. Winds will remain light today between 4-5kts and will be
mainly out of the south./JNE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       38  62  51  66 /   0   2  46  88
Meridian      37  61  49  66 /   0   1  38  90
Vicksburg     41  62  53  67 /   1   3  64  86
Hattiesburg   37  65  51  69 /   0   1   8  80
Natchez       40  63  53  66 /   1   1  44  88
Greenville    38  57  51  65 /   3  20  95  81
Greenwood     39  58  50  64 /   0   8  93  93

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

JNE/28