


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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228 FXUS64 KJAN 161753 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1008 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Local radars are showing convection getting an early start across our southern zones. This convection will continue to increase from the south through the day. Although no strong to severe storms are expected this morning, local microburst checklist showed a slight chance by mid afternoon. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a shortwave trough axis just to our west that is progged to shift east and help enhance the convection. With the early start and numerous coverage of convection, some locations may struggle to reach forecast maximum afternoon temperatures today. Have made minor adjustments to temperatures will lowest highs expected over the southwest. /22/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 The moist airmass remains entrenched over the area with a broad upper level trough draped over the area. Today will be a repeat of yesterday, with early morning convection north of I-20 giving way to more widespread showers/thunderstorms filling in by afternoon. Locally high rain rates can`t be rule out today neither can a few storms going severe later on in the day. Highs will be nice and subdued thanks to persistent cloud coverage/showers with only a few eastern sites break 90F today, while everywhere else peaks in the high 80s. For the rest of the period expect real gradual warming day to day, with temperatures climbing into the mid 90s by the beginning of next week. Along with a general warming trend we should continue to see a decrease in the overall coverage and intensity of thunderstorms and showers. That being said it doesn`t look like any site fully escapes measurable precipitation totals over the coming week, so have those raincoats and umbrellas ready./OAJ/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Scattered TSRA were already noted on local radars at 1730Z. The TSRA wl increase in coverage this aftn and reduce flying conditions. The TSRA wl dissipate this evening from the south. Away from TSRA VFR conditions will prevail until after 11Z Tuesday when MVFR cigs wl develop at most TAF sites and prevail until after 15Z. By 17Z VFR conditions are expected areawide until scattered to numerous TSRA develop from the south again Tuesday aftn. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 89 72 89 73 / 70 40 60 0 Meridian 92 71 90 73 / 60 30 70 10 Vicksburg 87 73 90 74 / 70 40 40 0 Hattiesburg 93 73 92 75 / 70 20 70 10 Natchez 87 73 88 73 / 70 30 50 0 Greenville 85 73 88 74 / 80 50 40 0 Greenwood 87 73 88 74 / 90 60 60 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/OAJ/22