Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 220831

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
331 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024


Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Today and Tonight...Strong high pressure, both at the surface and
aloft, will remain in control of the weather across the region
through tonight.  Winds through the course of the day will gradually
become southerly at around 5 mph. With quiet weather expected, highs
this afternoon will climb into the mid and upper 90s, with afternoon
heat index values around 100 expected.  Then for tonight, mostly
clear skies will exist as lows fall into the low and middle 70s.

Sunday and Monday: Though the area will remain on the eastern
periphery of strong mid/upper ridging, low level flow will become
more southerly, with increasing low level moisture beginning Sunday.
Daytime mixing is expected to decrease day by day, with dewpoints
remaining in the 70s through the day in more locations. Combined
with temps in the upper 90s to near 100, this will yield heat
indices pushing into the triple digits areawide and approaching 105F-
110F initially west of I-55/US 49 on Sunday then over most of the
area by Monday. With increasing concern for heat stress, we will
continue to highlight dangerous heat in the HWO graphics, and an
advisory may eventually be needed.

As deep layer moisture increases and a shortwave moves across the
Midsouth dragging a weak stalling front just north of the area by
Monday, rain chances will begin to increase early next week. Only
isolated activity is expected Sunday, but increased coverage is
possible Monday, especially east of I-55 along a ribbon of deeper
moisture and nearer to the weak front.

Tuesday through Friday: The ridge will begin to retrograde, with
increasing troughing over the Atlantic states, placing our region in
more active NW upper flow. Meanwhile moisture will continue to
increase throughout the column, and combined with sufficient forcing
and plentiful instability, rain chances continue to trend upward
Tuesday into Wednesday. With some influence from the ridge
persisting as you go farther west, the eastern half of the area will
be favored for higher PoPs these days. Unfortunately, the promise of
a front bringing brief relief from the humidity for the end of next
week is beginning to dwindle. Recent runs now stall this feature
across the northern part of the area or north of us entirely,
keeping a rather moist airmass in place across the majority of the
region through at least the end of the week. Nevertheless, the
mid/upper ridge does show signs of building again toward the end of
the week, extending into the Midsouth and North MS. This would keep
better rain chances for Thursday and Friday across mainly the
southern portion of the area.

Elevated heat stress concerns will continue into Tuesday, before
greater prevalence of clouds and rain are more likely to disrupt
heating on Wednesday into Thursday. However, heat indices look to
trend back upward toward the end of the forecast period. /DL/


(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites over the
next 24 hours. Winds overnight will generally be calm. However,
these will increase through late morning, eventually becoming
southerly at around 5 knots. /19/


Jackson       96  73  96  76 /   0   0  10   0
Meridian      97  72  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
Vicksburg     95  73  96  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   96  73  98  76 /   0   0  20   0
Natchez       94  73  95  75 /   0   0  10   0
Greenville    96  75  98  78 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     96  73  97  77 /   0   0   0  10