Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 082322 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
622 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion: Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Winds will continue from the south at 10 to 15 knots and
gusts around 25 knots with periods of low level wind shear
possible late tonight around GLH and GWO. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin developing between GLH and GWO by late
morning and continue through the end of the period./GG/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight & Sunday...

Tonight: As the mid-level ridge axis builds east-southeast towards
the Florida peninsula/eastern Gulf of Mexico overnight, expect
the pressure gradient to begin to increase. A strong 300mb upper
jet will help surface cyclone to deepen over the central Plains &
into the Ozarks, leading to it quickly ejecting E by daybreak
Sunday. With the surface low nearly 1000mb & strong 1020mb
subtropical ridge off Atlantic seaboard/southwest Atlantic, there
will be a tight pressure gradient developing. In response, deep
layer moisture will quickly be on the increase even as early as
daybreak Wednesday. The front is still progged over the central
Plains/Ozarks, so rain chances should still be off to our NW.
Gradient winds will be on the increase & could be gusty just
before daybreak in the far NW Delta. Low-level moisture &
gradient winds across & NW of the Natchez Trace will be
increasing. Lows across areas W of I-55 & into the Delta will be
above normal in the upper 60s while closer to normal in the E in
the upper 50s.

Sunday: As the shortwave progged to swing E, this will lead to
increasing low-level moisture advection, deep layer moisture &
tightening pressure gradient. With moisture on the increase &
dewpoints climbing into the low-mid 60s, this will combine with
strong WAA & above normal highs in the low-mid 80s. In addition,
steep lapse rates aloft & low-mid level winds fields will
strengthen across the area, with 850mb jet nearly 30-50kts, there
will be increasing mean bulk shear across the region, around
30-40kts. Increasing daytime heating will help MLCAPE of
1500-2000 J/kg to develop & favorable shear will aid in severe
potential. This will especially be the case for damaging winds for
any E-SE bowing segments & some large hail as well, especially
with favorable juxtaposition of shear/steep mid-level lapse rates
approaching 7.5 deg. C. Low level shear profiles are favorable for
some tornado potential, especially along & northwest of the
Natchez Trace. Storm mode could be a question, but a mix of some
supercells/bowing segments are possible. The timing looks to be
early afternoon in the far NW Delta & spread E-SE through early
evening. There could be some heavy downpours as well in any W-E
training of a quick inch or two in a short period of time, but the
heaviest rain looks to hold off into the evening. Only changes
were to small adjustments to the eastern side of the
Slight/Marginal.

In addition, strong gradient & low-level winds could bring some
gusty gradient winds from central MS into the NW Delta through the
afternoon. Added a Limited in the HWO for gusty sustained winds up
to 25mph & gusts up to 35 mph. Will have to watch for any better
potential of sustained winds in the Wind Advisory criteria, but
confidence is not high enough just yet. /DC/

Sunday night through Friday night...The severe threat will
transition to more of a flooding threat Sunday evening into the
overnight hours. Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches will be possible,
mainly for areas north of the Natchez Trace Corridor. A limited
threat for flash flooding is being advertised in the HWO and
Graphicasts. The showers and thunderstorms will continue to move
southeast across the area Sunday night into Monday morning and as
the boundary becomes stationary, the best chance for storms will be
along and south of I-20 on Monday. With daytime heating on Monday,
some of the storms may become strong to possibly severe during the
afternoon into the evening hours. A marginal risk for severe is in
effect for areas along and south of I-20 on Monday. We may get a
brief break from the storms Monday evening into the overnight hours,
but expect the activity to pick up once again later Tuesday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area Tuesday into
Tuesday evening and once again a strong storm or two may be possible
in the south Tuesday afternoon. Showers and storms will continue
across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Heavy rainfall will be
a concern during this period and this will have to continue to be
monitored for possible inclusion in our graphics. As a stronger
short waves moves into the area on Wednesday, the boundary will push
further south out of the area along with the thunderstorm activity
by Wednesday evening. A few showers will be possible in the south
Wednesday night, but high pressure ridging will build across the
area on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s across the
area. High pressure and dry conditions will continue through Friday
night. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  84  66  78 /   1  35  89  76
Meridian      58  85  64  79 /   0  13  75  84
Vicksburg     65  84  66  77 /   1  58  91  69
Hattiesburg   61  86  66  81 /   0   8  61  86
Natchez       64  84  68  78 /   2  35  68  75
Greenville    66  82  58  69 /   2  80  94  44
Greenwood     63  80  61  72 /   1  72  94  51

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$


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