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000
FXUS64 KJAN 080550
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1250 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Convection has tapered off in most areas, except for a cluster of
strong storms around Columbia and a lingering cell near Bastrop.
The remaining activity will end or move out of the area over the
next 1-2 hours as instability continues to wane, with dry and
mostly clear conditions overnight. Guidance is less enthusiastic
about patchy fog tonight with some drier air having filtered into
the region. However, we can`t rule out some localized development
especially in sheltered valleys and areas that have received rain
today. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

This Evening through Tomorrow: Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will continue to be possible through the rest of this
afternoon - mainly south of Interstate 20 where PWATs are near 1.5
inches. Drier air gradually advecting southward from the north in
advance of cold front dipping into the region tonight into tomorrow.
Moisture pooled along the front will bring returning rain chances
area wide by the afternoon tomorrow. A plume of smoke aloft has
wrapped south over parts of the region today, resulting in possible
hazy conditions overnight and some moderate air quality conditions
in the region through tomorrow. /NF/

Tomorrow night through Wednesday...No big changes to the long term
forecast. Stuck with guidance for pops and temps. Things heat up
toward the end of the forecast period with mid to upper 90s likely
Wednesday through the end of next week. Right now, it doesn`t
look like the area will reach 100 degrees. However, heat stress
may have to be introduced with after heat index values near 100,
winds expected to be light and overnight lows temperatures
approaching the lower to mid 70s. It`s still nearly a week away,
but the end of next week looks dry, so warmer temperatures are
likely.

The area will remain in this northwest flow pattern, caught
between the closed upper low to the northeast and ridge over the
southwest. A boundary makes its way south into the area Thursday
into Friday with several passing waves keeping a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast nearly everyday into
early next week.

A boundary forecast to move into the area, seems to be a little
slower,so there will likely be diurnal activity into Thursday
evening ahead of the system. Rain associated with the boundary
may be narrow in range, mainly stretching from NW to SE across the
area Friday and Saturday. Some dry air intrusion expected, models
generally keep activity along and west of highway 49 before
the front moves out.

Around Sunday a low pressure system drops into the Midwest and
helps to clear the stalled boundary over the region and the upper
disturbance in the northeast, but quickly brings another weak
front into the area. The system seems to stall for a few days,
keeps isolated to scattered shower activity over the area through
midweek.

Long term models agree that the area of high pressure aloft
building into the Gulf will bring some drier air into the region.
Dry air mixing down should help to raise temperatures. Long term
guidance shows Tuesday as the warmest day with values near 95
everywhere. A few places may reach the mid 90s for a few days mid
to late next week with dewpoints remaining near 70, it will be
balmy as summer officially settles into the area. /07/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

VFR conditions should prevail today. MVFR conditions are possible
this morning across southeastern portions of the area due to
slightly reduced visibilities from patchy ground fog. Scattered
thunderstorms associated with a cold front are possible this
afternoon and should taper off late evening into tonight. Winds
should remain light and northerly, with brief directional
variability with frontal passage this afternoon and evening./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  67  90  67 /  20  20  20   0
Meridian      92  66  90  65 /  40  10  10   0
Vicksburg     94  69  92  69 /  20  20  20  10
Hattiesburg   93  68  92  68 /  20  20  30  10
Natchez       92  68  92  68 /  20  20  30  10
Greenville    91  68  89  68 /  20  10  10   0
Greenwood     90  67  89  66 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/07/SAS20