Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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767 FXUS64 KJAN 051150 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 550 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 407 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 Today and Tonight: It will be breezy today over portions of the delta region but isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will also be possible over the same area and as far south as Catahoula and Concordia Parishes. Early morning surface analysis had a ridge nosing into our CWA from the east while a 1002mb low over the central Plains had a cold front nearing the ArkLaTex. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the low was already contributing to gusty winds over the northwest portions of our CWA. These gusty winds will increase this morning ahead of the cold front that will approach our CWA. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a 591dam just off the coast of the Carolinas and an amplified shortwave trough over the central and southern Plains. The bulk of the energy with the shortwave trough will continue to the northeast around the mid level high but be enough to advance the cold front into the western portions of our CWA. This cold front will stall across our northwest zones tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage along and ahead of the cold front. This will lead to the potential for isolated severe storms over our western zones from late morning through the afternoon. This potential including the gusty winds will end by this evening. Temperatures will be a little cooler tonight but without any change in airmass, continue warmer than normal. /22/ Wednesday into early next week... With a frontal system stalling over the area today/tonight as described above, rain chances will continue with well above normal temperatures and humidity. Highs will likely continue to reach into the upper 70s F and low/mid 80s F and lows in the 60s F through the weekend, possibly sliding into the 50s into next week. Strong to severe storms are not expected, but some diurnal enhancement to showers and isolated thunderstorms could be possible through the end of this week. By late Friday evening into the weekend, guidance spread increases in large part associated with what exactly transpires with Rafael (see Tropics below). Most solutions bring a front into the area heading into the weekend but differ on timing and strength. Should solutions like the GFS with a slightly stronger tropical vortex to our east verify, then this would result in a stronger front, pulled into that circulation. Most guidance (including the ECMWF), however, is a bit less robust and either delays the front or reduces its strength. The most likely scenario, then, is that a front of some fashion makes its way into our area by late week/early next week with continued rain chances and perhaps a bit of a cooling trend. Details are still to be determined and changes to rain chances and exact temperature trend forecasts will be likely in coming days. Tropics: Tropical Storm Rafael formed yesterday in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The storm is still expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves northward toward the Gulf of Mexico. While it does appear that some remnant impact could move into the vicinity of the Lower Mississippi Valley by late week into weekend, cooler water, increasing wind shear, and impacts from dry air will likely induce substantial weakening prior to the storm making any near progress. For this reason, higher-end impacts from a hurricane, for example, are not currently anticipated locally. Regardless, the system bears watching as it progresses in our direction. /86/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 A mix of MVFR and IFR cigs wl prevail until after 15Z when VFR conditions are expected. A gusty southeast to south wind of 18-22kts wl continue across the nw half of the area through aftn. After 15Z SHRA wl begin moving over GLH. The SHRA/TSRA activity will spread east through 00Z Wed but gradually taper off over the se half of the area after 00Z Wed. Reduced flying conditions are expected with the SHRA/TSRA. After 06Z Wed cigs are expected to lower back to MVFR and lower to IFR cigs by 10Z along with MVFR vsbys. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 85 69 85 67 / 40 40 20 20 Meridian 84 66 83 65 / 20 20 10 20 Vicksburg 83 66 83 65 / 60 70 30 30 Hattiesburg 88 68 86 67 / 20 10 10 10 Natchez 83 67 83 66 / 60 50 30 20 Greenville 82 64 77 64 / 90 80 50 30 Greenwood 84 66 84 66 / 60 70 40 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/LP/22