Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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767
FXUS64 KJAN 051150 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
550 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024

Today and Tonight: It will be breezy today over portions of the
delta region but isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will also be possible over the
same area and as far south as Catahoula and Concordia Parishes.

Early morning surface analysis had a ridge nosing into our CWA from
the east while a 1002mb low over the central Plains had a cold front
nearing the ArkLaTex. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
the low was already contributing to gusty winds over the northwest
portions of our CWA. These gusty winds will increase this morning
ahead of the cold front that will approach our CWA. Early morning
water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a
591dam just off the coast of the Carolinas and an amplified
shortwave trough over the central and southern Plains. The bulk of
the energy with the shortwave trough will continue to the northeast
around the mid level high but be enough to advance the cold front
into the western portions of our CWA. This cold front will stall
across our northwest zones tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage along and ahead of the cold front. This will
lead to the potential for isolated severe storms over our western
zones from late morning through the afternoon. This potential
including the gusty winds will end by this evening. Temperatures
will be a little cooler tonight but without any change in airmass,
continue warmer than normal. /22/

Wednesday into early next week...

With a frontal system stalling over the area today/tonight as
described above, rain chances will continue with well above normal
temperatures and humidity. Highs will likely continue to reach into
the upper 70s F and low/mid 80s F and lows in the 60s F through the
weekend, possibly sliding into the 50s into next week. Strong to
severe storms are not expected, but some diurnal enhancement to
showers and isolated thunderstorms could be possible through the end
of this week.

By late Friday evening into the weekend, guidance spread increases
in large part associated with what exactly transpires with Rafael
(see Tropics below). Most solutions bring a front into the area
heading into the weekend but differ on timing and strength. Should
solutions like the GFS with a slightly stronger tropical vortex to
our east verify, then this would result in a stronger front, pulled
into that circulation. Most guidance (including the ECMWF), however,
is a bit less robust and either delays the front or reduces its
strength. The most likely scenario, then, is that a front of some
fashion makes its way into our area by late week/early next week
with continued rain chances and perhaps a bit of a cooling trend.
Details are still to be determined and changes to rain chances and
exact temperature trend forecasts will be likely in coming days.

Tropics:  Tropical Storm Rafael formed yesterday in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. The storm is still expected to
strengthen into a hurricane as it moves northward toward the Gulf
of Mexico. While it does appear that some remnant impact could
move into the vicinity of the Lower Mississippi Valley by late
week into weekend, cooler water, increasing wind shear, and
impacts from dry air will likely induce substantial weakening
prior to the storm making any near progress. For this reason,
higher-end impacts from a hurricane, for example, are not
currently anticipated locally. Regardless, the system bears
watching as it progresses in our direction. /86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024

A mix of MVFR and IFR cigs wl prevail until after 15Z when VFR
conditions are expected. A gusty southeast to south wind of
18-22kts wl continue across the nw half of the area through aftn.
After 15Z SHRA wl begin moving over GLH. The SHRA/TSRA activity
will spread east through 00Z Wed but gradually taper off over the
se half of the area after 00Z Wed. Reduced flying conditions are
expected with the SHRA/TSRA. After 06Z Wed cigs are expected to
lower back to MVFR and lower to IFR cigs by 10Z along with MVFR
vsbys. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  69  85  67 /  40  40  20  20
Meridian      84  66  83  65 /  20  20  10  20
Vicksburg     83  66  83  65 /  60  70  30  30
Hattiesburg   88  68  86  67 /  20  10  10  10
Natchez       83  67  83  66 /  60  50  30  20
Greenville    82  64  77  64 /  90  80  50  30
Greenwood     84  66  84  66 /  60  70  40  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/LP/22