228
FXUS64 KJAN 161753 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Local radars are showing convection getting an early start across
our southern zones. This convection will continue to increase from
the south through the day. Although no strong to severe storms are
expected this morning, local microburst checklist showed a slight
chance by mid afternoon. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP
analysis showed a shortwave trough axis just to our west that is
progged to shift east and help enhance the convection. With the
early start and numerous coverage of convection, some locations
may struggle to reach forecast maximum afternoon temperatures
today. Have made minor adjustments to temperatures will lowest
highs expected over the southwest. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The moist airmass remains entrenched over the area with a broad
upper level trough draped over the area. Today will be a repeat of
yesterday, with early morning convection north of I-20 giving way to
more widespread showers/thunderstorms filling in by afternoon.
Locally high rain rates can`t be rule out today neither can a few
storms going severe later on in the day. Highs will be nice and
subdued thanks to persistent cloud coverage/showers with only a few
eastern sites break 90F today, while everywhere else peaks in the
high 80s.

For the rest of the period expect real gradual warming day to day,
with temperatures climbing into the mid 90s by the beginning of next
week. Along with a general warming trend we should continue to see a
decrease in the overall coverage and intensity of thunderstorms and
showers. That being said it doesn`t look like any site fully escapes
measurable precipitation totals over the coming week, so have those
raincoats and umbrellas ready./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Scattered TSRA were already noted on local radars at 1730Z. The
TSRA wl increase in coverage this aftn and reduce flying
conditions. The TSRA wl dissipate this evening from the south.
Away from TSRA VFR conditions will prevail until after 11Z Tuesday
when MVFR cigs wl develop at most TAF sites and prevail until
after 15Z. By 17Z VFR conditions are expected areawide until
scattered to numerous TSRA develop from the south again Tuesday
aftn. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  72  89  73 /  70  40  60   0
Meridian      92  71  90  73 /  60  30  70  10
Vicksburg     87  73  90  74 /  70  40  40   0
Hattiesburg   93  73  92  75 /  70  20  70  10
Natchez       87  73  88  73 /  70  30  50   0
Greenville    85  73  88  74 /  80  50  40   0
Greenwood     87  73  88  74 /  90  60  60   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/OAJ/22