228
FXUS64 KJAN 171202 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
602 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend.

  - Low potential for strong to severe storms this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Through tonight: Patchy dense fog has developed over east
Mississippi this morning but satellite imagery and surface
observations confirmed a broken layer of stratus covering most of
our CWA. The dense fog development was along the eastern edge of the
stratus layer but there were breaks in the stratus over our delta
region where additional dense fog development is likely. Current
thinking suggests that the dense fog will remain limited in coverage
so a Dense Fog Advisory is not anticipated.

Surface ridging will continue to nose across our CWA from the east
through tonight while a low pressure system over the northern Plains
shifts east to the Great Lakes region tonight. There will be a
tightening of our pressure gradient between the ridging from the
east to the surface low over the northern Plains. This will result
in breezy winds developing tonight so dense fog development will be
less of a concern. Per the 00Z Tue JAN sounding, PWATs were less
than a half inch. Moisture will increase today and tonight ahead of
the approaching cold front associated with the surface low that will
be nearing the Great Lakes region by sunrise Wednesday. By sunrise
Wednesday our PWATs will be back above an inch over the northwest
half of the CWA but no precipitation is expected in our CWA. There
may still be some persistent stratus around this afternoon but
temperatures will top out warmer today and remain nearly ten degrees
warmer Wednesday morning than this morning. /22/

Mid week through early next week...

Above normal temperatures maintain late this week with highs in the
upper 70s and low 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s. This is about +20
above seasonal norms. Thursday appears to be the warmest day with
the peak of a low level thermal ridge. Record high temperatures are
possible.

The ridge flattens and breaks down late week as we transition to a
SW flow regime. Guidance continues the trend towards a less
amplified pattern, with instead subtle shortwaves embedded in SW
flow. This should support a wetter pattern for late week. Nothing in
particular stands out at the moment in terms of flood risk,
especially given dry antecedent conditions, but would keep an eye
out for heavy rain with anomalous moisture and persistent
rainfall with disturbances moving along the stalled boundary and
lack of airmass change. The axis of greatest totals at this time
appears to be northwest of the Natchez Trace.

A more stout shortwave Saturday could carry the potential for severe
with a greater low level response. Moisture is sufficient amid a
strongly sheared environment south of I-20, so would not rule out
the potential for a future convective outlook for Saturday. That
said, there`s disagreement in the guidance regarding the evolution
of this feature. Will closely monitor. The associated cold front
pushes out and ushers in drier, colder air for early next week.

We flip the switch early next week in the wake of this weekend`s
activity as a piece of a Canadian surface high propagates towards
the region. This airmass is characterized by near
freezing/freezing temps, with hard freezing temps in the Golden
Triangle, but cold should not reach dangerous thresholds. Still,
in the wake of the potential record warmth this week, this could
have an impact on vegetation. This burst of cold is really
short-lived, as above normal temps look to return by the middle
of next week./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

IFR/LIFR cigs wl prevail through 15Z before improving to MVFR.
MVFR cigs wl prevail until after 20Z before improving to VFR. VFR
conditions will then prevail until after 07Z before MVFR cigs
redevelop across the area and prevail through the end of the TAF
period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  57  77  61 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      70  55  77  59 /   0   0   0  10
Vicksburg     69  57  76  61 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   74  58  81  61 /   0   0  10  10
Natchez       71  58  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    66  57  71  61 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     69  58  74  61 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/SAS20/22