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000
FXUS64 KJAN 172353
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
553 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Mostly VFR flight categories are ongoing this evening. However,
these will drop to MVFR or potentially IFR later this evening into
the overnight hours. Showers will occur overnight as a front
sweeps across the region. This will continue through the afternoon
Saturday. Winds will also be gusty out of the south through the
night, then west and north following the frontal passage tomorrow.
Sustained winds around 10-15kts and gusts to near 20kts will be
possible. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight into Saturday:

Main forecast focus for tonight will revolve around increasing
rain chances as we see a warm front lift back N/NE, then a cold
front will push through the area Sat afternoon from NW to SE.
Before we get into the period(s) of better rain chances, there
looks to be a small window here in the late afternoon where some
light showers have developed in the increasing WAA pattern aloft.
There should be a break in that activity this evening, but then
the better frontal lift will ensue, and the increasing WAA along
with the approaching front and low level convergence will support
increasing and better overall coverage of precip. Most of this
will be in the form of showers, but by midday and early afternoon,
some isolated thunder looks to be possible over the SE half in
advance of and along the front. Decent PoPs will exist up to the
midday hours, then a decreasing trend will occur from NW to SE as
the front moves through.

As for precip amounts, all indications this event will support 0.20
to 0.50 type rains or less. This is good news as the area has been
quite saturated of late.

As for temps, not much of a cool down tonight and the coolest
readings may occur this evening, hold steady, then increase by
sunrise. There will be a good bit of clouds and showers around, but
low level temps in the WAA regime support the S 2/3 of the area to
range from 70 to 75. /CME/

Saturday Night through Friday:

The chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm will quickly
exit the Pine Belt as the cold front continues to push southeast
of our forecast area. A steepening ridge over the Intermountain
West and digging shortwave/closed low coming down out of Canada by
Monday/Tuesday time frame will usher a cold arctic high pressure
system into the central CONUS and steer it towards the South. The
consensus of model guidance is for a 1035 mb high pressure center
slide over or near our forecast area Tuesday, and this will bring
a return of colder than normal temperatures. There could be some
cloud cover and slight wind to disrupt the most ideal radiational
cooling beneath the surface high, but widespread low temperatures
in the lower 20s look to be likely by Monday night/Tuesday morning
under the axis of the high. Low temperatures on Tuesday night are
a little trickier as some high clouds may begin to encroach from
the southwest, so tempered cooling across western zones, and left
lows in the low/mid 20s in eastern Mississippi.

The forecast remains less certain for the second half of the week
as far as timing and evolution of the upper-level flow is
concerned, but our active weather pattern looks to continue with
another low pressure system expected to to move east across
central and southern parts of the U.S. between Thursday and
Saturday. With recent periods of heavy rainfall and still
saturated soil conditions, the threat for heavy rain with this
late week system will have to be watched. Thunderstorms will be
possible, but again, uncertainties in the pattern evolution will
limit any concerns for severe weather at this time. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       57  72  35  49 /  41  73  14   0
Meridian      53  69  36  49 /  21  73  24   1
Vicksburg     57  72  36  48 /  55  73   8   0
Hattiesburg   57  74  40  51 /  50  80  41   3
Natchez       59  72  37  50 /  58  61  21   2
Greenville    54  67  33  45 /  80  79   1   0
Greenwood     55  67  32  46 /  54  84   3   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

28