379
FXUS62 KJAX 160603
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
203 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Low MVFR ceilings of 1,000 - 2,000 feet will prevail overnight
through the morning hours, except at GNV and VQQ, where IFR
ceilings of 500-900 feet will prevail. Occasional light showers or
sprinkles are likely to continue through the predawn hours at SSI,
with occasional light showers or sprinkles possible through the
morning hours on Monday at the Duval County terminals and SGJ.
Ceilings will be slow to lift during the afternoon hours, with
showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms developing near
or south of the GNV and SGJ terminals after 16Z. Confidence in
thunderstorm development remains too low for a mention of VCTS at
this time, and VCSH was maintained at these terminals for the
overnight TAF package. Ceilings should lift to the 2,000 - 3,000
foot range by sunset, and then VFR conditions should prevail at
the regional terminals shortly after sunset on Monday evening.
Northerly surface winds sustained at 5-10 knots are expected
through sunrise, with speeds increasing to around 10 knots during
the early to mid-morning hours. Winds will shift to northwesterly
and will diminish below 10 knots by the late afternoon hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

There are no substantial updates to the forecast this evening. A
stable airmass associated with a secondary frontal zone is being
slung southward by the low pressure (*Potential Tropical Cyclone
8*) gathering to the northeast. This boundary has slid past the
Altamaha River, denoted by a sharp drop in dewpoints from the mid
70s to the upper 60s and will continue southward. The stabilizing
airmass in its wake will limit the showery/drizzle activity across
the region, but spotty activity is still possible. Overcast skies
will keep temperatures in the low to mid 70s tonight and prevent
much in the way of any fog development.

A King Tide (higher astronomical tides) event combined with a
component of onshore flow will elevate tides along the Atlantic
coast tonight and over the next 24 hours. Trapped, elevated tides
within the St Johns River and Minor to low-end Moderate flooding
will continue through the week, particularly with the higher high
tides. Tidal levels will generally push between the 1-2 feet above
normally dry ground.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Tonight...The remainder of the spoke of energy should push
through NE FL during the evening hours which may continue
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity a few hours
past sunset. Otherwise expect decreasing rainfall chances and
diminishing winds over inland areas, although breezy North to
Northeast winds will continue through the night at Atlantic
beachfront locations. Skies will continue at mostly cloudy levels
and will prevent any significant fog formation, except for the
usual patchy fog over inland NE FL along the I-75 corridor. Low
temps in the upper 60s for inland SE GA, lower 70s for inland NE
FL and middle 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Prevailing flow will shift to become more out of the southwest
during this period as low pressure off the coast drifts northward
towards the Carolinas. Drier air will be pulled over northeast
Florida by Tuesday night with PWAT values dropping from 2 inches
to about 1.4 to 1.6 inches which is expected to result in less
widespread convection by midweek, however potential for scattered
to numerous showers and storms capable of producing localized
heavy rainfall and flooding are still possible through the period.
High temperatures will gradually rise through the beginning of
the week with max temps rising into the mid 80s over southeast
Georgia and into the upper 80s for northeast Florida, by Tuesday.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The frontal boundary over the Florida peninsula will begin to
shift southward through the forecast period as the associated
upper level low begins to shift south along the eastern CONUS and
Atlantic waters. Drier air (PWATs 1.2" - 1.5") moves into the area
during the back half of the upcoming week as the upper level low
shifts south. Lower precipitation chances, with PoPs mainly in
the 45% to 60% range, on Wednesday will steadily drop to the 25%
to 45% range by the upcoming weekend. Daytime temperatures in the
upper 80s for latter half of the week, with highs getting to the
low to mid 80s by the weekend. Overnight lows in the upper 60s and
low 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Low pressure will continue to organize over the Gulf Stream
waters adjacent to the Carolina coastline, with this feature
potentially acquiring tropical characteristics as it pushes
northward towards the Carolina coast on Monday night or early
Tuesday morning. Waves of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
will develop across our local waters through Monday night. Winds
will shift to northwesterly on Monday night while diminishing,
with seas then gradually diminishing through midweek. Otherwise, a
frontal boundary positioned across the Florida peninsula will
lift northward over the northeast Florida waters on Wednesday,
keeping chances for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms in
place. This front will then shift south of our local waters late
this week.

Rip Currents: High risk for all area beaches today and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  66  85  67 /  20  10  20  20
SSI  82  71  85  73 /  20  20  20  20
JAX  84  70  87  71 /  30  20  40  30
SGJ  85  73  87  73 /  40  20  40  30
GNV  85  69  88  70 /  50  30  40  10
OCF  87  71  90  71 /  50  30  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ033-038-124-
     125-132-133-137-138-325.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$