626
FXUS62 KJAX 201520
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1120 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast is on track this morning as breezy easterly onshore
winds 15-25 mph are being observed along the coast to about the
10-20 mph range inland with highest gusts so far near 30 mph.
Scattered low topped coastal showers that moved onshore early
this morning mainly over NE FL and treked inland along I-10
towards Valdosta with other showers scattered over NE FL. This
activity will shift inland towards I-75 through lunch time with
another light round moveing onshore the SE GA and NE FL coast
north of St Augustine in the early to mid afternoon hours. Partly
cloudy skies and the onshore flow 15-25 gusting at times to 30-35
will keep highs cooler at the coast in the mid 80s approaching
around 90 degrees over I-75/US441 corridors westward.

Tonight, a weak low with disorganized showers and thunderstorms
north to northeast of the Bahamas will move west to west northwest
towards the NE FL coast south of St Augustine with rounds of
numerous to widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. Could
see locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches along the NE FL
coast to the St Johns river, but most likely amounts will be in
the half inch to an inch range for most locations over NE FL and
coastal SE GA with less amounts over inland SE GA. A few heavier
showers may also bring wind gusts up to 35-40 mph, but winds will
mostly be breezy at the immediate coast overnight in the 15-20 mph
range gusting to 30 mph and 10-15 mph inland. The elevated
onshore winds at the coast will keep lows in the upper 70s at the
coast, mid 70s along I-95, lows 70s inland with some upper 60s
northwest of Waycross.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Strong onshore/Easterly flow will continue today with scattered
showers and isolated storms moving onshore at times with gusty
winds to 35-40 mph. Max temps will remain at or slightly below
normal with highs in the middle 80s at the Atlantic beaches, upper
80s along the I-95 corridor and around 90F over far inland areas.
Inverted surface trough approaches from the East over the Coastal
Waters tonight and likely arrives at the NE FL Coastal areas late
tonight with numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms with
heavy rainfall and gusty wind potential. Still appears as this
feature is moving too fast to become organized into significant
tropical system, but some convective gusts to gale force and
localized flooding possible in urban areas and along the
beachfront locations during times of high tide late tonight. The
elevated winds tonight will keep temps above normal in the 70s
inland and near 80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas, but may drop
a few degrees lower in heavier rainfall activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Area of low pressure in an inverted trough will move west across
north central FL Friday morning. Expecting showers with embedded
thunderstorms with this feature, along with elevated winds and
gusts. Highs Friday will be a little cooler than normal due the
clouds and rainfall passing through.

High pressure will build to the northeast behind the trough Friday
afternoon through Saturday. This pattern will continue the onshore
flow pattern, but the gradient will be more relaxed, so so not
expecting winds to be as elevated. Above average shower chances will
continue in the onshore flow. Diurnal heating could lead to a few
afternoon storms on Saturday. Lows Friday night will generally be in
the lower to mid 70s, except a little warmer near the coast.
Temperatures Saturday will trend above normal, with highs ranging
from the lower 90s at the coast, to the mid 90s inland.

The high will move further away to the east northeast Saturday
night, with the flow becoming more from the south/southeast. Lows
away from the coast in the mid 70s, upper 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The high will continue to drift away to the east this period, as a
trough moves into the southeastern US and stalls. An increasingly
moist southwest flow will become the trend this period. This pattern
will produce above normal chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be above normal throughout this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS have approved to VFR this morning. There will be a
brief in the rainfall for most of the day today with gusty E-NE
winds at 15G25 knots and isolated to widely scattered showers
(VCSH). As winds become more NE tonight after sunset expect more
widespread MVFR CIGS to develop with numerous light rain showers
and isolated t-storms developing for the coastal TAFs after 06z
during the predawn hours as a inverted trof moves toward the
coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Small Craft Advisories will continue through Tonight with East
winds in the 20-25 knot range with frequent gusts to 30 knots at
times. Models still on track with inverted surface trough under
area of low pressure aloft pushing into the FL East Coast Atlantic
waters later Tonight and/or Early Friday which will likely
continue strong onshore flow at Small Craft Advisory levels with
low chances of potential Gale Force winds if an organized low
pressure center can develop. Winds will then shift to the
Southeast following the wave by this weekend with a decrease in
wind speeds to 10-15 knots and slowly subsiding seas below
headline levels.

Rip Currents: The strong onshore flow will continue a high risk of
rip currents with surf/breakers of 5-7 ft Today and Friday, along
with high surf headlines continuing along the NE FL coastal
areas. With the approach of the full moon later this week, water
levels will start to run above normal but coastal flooding is not
expected at this time in the onshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  69  91  72 /  10  40  60  30
SSI  85  76  87  76 /  20  60  80  50
JAX  87  74  88  75 /  40  70  80  40
SGJ  86  75  88  77 /  40  70  80  40
GNV  90  72  91  72 /  30  60  80  20
OCF  91  72  94  75 /  20  40  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$