Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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145 FXUS62 KJAX 151811 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 211 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf This afternoon...Spoke of energy expected to rotate around the west side of developing low pressure center off the SE US coastline and push southward through SE GA and into the I-10 corridor of NE FL this afternoon and through the rest of NE FL south of the I-10 corridor this evening. This will bring an uptick in shower and isolated thunderstorm activity this afternoon along with increasing North to Northeast winds up to 15-20 mph along the Atlantic Coastal areas with wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range with lesser winds of 10-15 mph inland with gusts of 20-25 mph. A mixture of low clouds near the surface along with high clouds streaming in aloft will keep temps muted again today with highs in the lower 80s across SE GA and in the middle 80s across NE FL and these slightly below normal temps should keep any afternoon thunderstorm activity isolated, but any of this activity could still produce some heavy downpours, but movement should be slightly higher today to prevent any significant flooding issues. Tonight...The remainder of the spoke of energy should push through NE FL during the evening hours which may continue scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity a few hours past sunset. Otherwise expect decreasing rainfall chances and diminishing winds over inland areas, although breezy North to Northeast winds will continue through the night at Atlantic beachfront locations. Skies will continue at mostly cloudy levels and will prevent any significant fog formation, except for the usual patchy fog over inland NE FL along the I-75 corridor. Low temps in the upper 60s for inland SE GA, lower 70s for inland NE FL and middle 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Prevailing flow will shift to become more out of the southwest during this period as low pressure off the coast drifts northward towards the Carolinas. Drier air will be pulled over northeast Florida by Tuesday night with PWAT values dropping from 2 inches to about 1.4 to 1.6 inches which is expected to result in less widespread convection by midweek, however potential for scattered to numerous showers and storms capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and flooding are still possible through the period. High temperatures will gradually rise through the beginning of the week with max temps rising into the mid 80s over southeast Georgia and into the upper 80s for northeast Florida, by Tuesday. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The frontal boundary over the Florida peninsula will begin to shift southward through the forecast period as the associated upper level low begins to shift south along the eastern CONUS and Atlantic waters. Drier air (PWATs 1.2" - 1.5") moves into the area during the back half of the upcoming week as the upper level low shifts south. Lower precipitation chances, with PoPs mainly in the 45% to 60% range, on Wednesday will steadily drop to the 25% to 45% range by the upcoming weekend. Daytime temperatures in the upper 80s for latter half of the week, with highs getting to the low to mid 80s by the weekend. Overnight lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Widespread MVFR CIGS will continue this afternoon with off and on light rainfall chances that could bring MVFR VSBYS at times through sunset, but again thunder chances still remain too low (around 10% or less) to include in TAF sites. Meanwhile North to Northeast winds have increased less than expected today, so will back off some of the wind gusts at TAF sites through the rest of the afternoon hours. Rainfall ends at the inland TAF sites of GNV/VQQ after sunset, but low chances for showers (VCSH) linger at coastal TAF sites through the overnight hours. With light North winds developing overnight inland and some boundary layer cooling, still on track for LIFR CIGS to develop by 09Z at GNV, and IFR CIGS at VQQ, while MVFR CIGS will persist at all of the other TAF sites. Slow lifting of CIGS at inland locations Monday morning to MVFR CIGS, but overall widespread MVFR CIGS will persist at TAF sites with a slow increase in Northeast winds along with rainfall chances, but not much more than (VCSH) at best. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Low pressure will continue to organize over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to the Carolina coastline, with this feature potentially acquiring tropical characteristics as it pushes northward towards the Carolina coast on Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Waves of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will develop across our local waters through Monday night. Winds will shift to northwesterly on Monday night while diminishing, with seas then gradually diminishing through midweek. Otherwise, a frontal boundary positioned across the Florida peninsula will lift northward over the northeast Florida waters on Wednesday, keeping chances for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms in place. This front will then shift south of our local waters late this week. Rip Currents: High risk for all area beaches today and Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 68 81 66 85 / 20 20 10 20 SSI 72 82 71 85 / 30 20 20 20 JAX 71 84 70 87 / 30 30 20 40 SGJ 73 85 73 87 / 30 40 20 40 GNV 71 85 69 88 / 20 50 30 40 OCF 71 87 71 90 / 20 50 30 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ033-038-132- 137-325. High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 133-138. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$