Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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824 FXUS62 KJAX 151025 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 625 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 107 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf As high pressure develops to the north Today, a prevailing onshore flow will prevail along the east coast. Further inland, the Gulf sea breeze will push inland through the day as well. Where the sea breezes merge during the mid afternoon, convection is expected to spread across area, with best chances near the I75 corridor. This activity will drift back toward the east as it diminishes late in the afternoon into the evening. A mainly clear night is forecast for Tonight. Above normal temperatures are forecast Today, with mid 90s common inland. Lows will range from the lower to mid 70s over the area Tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 107 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Sunday...High pressure starts to build into the Carolinas and moisture from dissipating frontal boundary that was north of the region will push into the local area as Easterly low level flow become more breezy along the Atlantic Coast. Temperatures will remain above normal over inland areas in the middle 90s along with heat indices still in the 100-105F range, while the onshore flow will keep highs closer to 90F along the I-95 corridor and Atlantic beaches. Scattered showers and storms are expected area wide with rainfall chances in the 30-50% range. Sunday Night...Easterly flow continues with showers/storms over the Atlantic Coastal waters and pushing into the Atlantic Coastal Counties at times and this will keep temps elevated in the upper 70s/near 80 along the coast and lower to middle 70s over inland areas with mainly dry conditions. Monday...High pressure ridge builds down the SE US coastline into the region with breezy Easterly flow at 15-25 mph along the Atlantic Coast and 10-20 mph over inland areas. Meanwhile drier airmass will build in aloft but at the lower levels the moist/onshore flow should help to develop scattered showers over the Atlantic Coastal waters that will move onshore, mainly across NE FL and become embedded with storms during the afternoon hours over inland areas. Max temps will return closer to normal values in the upper 80s along the Atlantic Coastal Counties/I-95 corridor with lower 90s expected over inland areas. Monday Night...Breezy easterly flow remains in place at the Atlantic Beaches with scattered showers/isolated storms over the Atlantic Coastal waters moving onshore into the coastal counties at times through the night. Mainly dry and mild over inland areas with lows in the lower 70s, while lows in the mid/upper 70s are expected along the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 107 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 High pressure ridge axis remains in place at the surface north of the region through the period with breezy Easterly flow at 15-25 mph along the Atlantic Coastal areas and 10-20 mph over inland areas each day. This flow pattern will return temps to near normal values with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over inland areas. The onshore flow will continue scattered showers/storms over the Atlantic Coastal waters through the period that will move onshore each day as the East Coast sea breeze moves well inland. Rainfall chances will be in the 30-50% range early in the week, with highest chances across NE FL, then as mid level trough pushes in from the East by the Thursday/Friday time frame, which will bring deeper moisture and increase rainfall chances into the 60-80% range for NE FL and into the 40-60% range for SE GA as the East Coast sea breeze become more active as it moves onshore each day, along with more convection over the Atlantic Coastal Waters pushing onshore into coastal areas through the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Fog will dissipate around the beginning of this period. Convection is expected to develop inland early this afternoon, then move toward the I75 corridor in the mid afternoon. KGNV is expected to be affected by the afternoon convection. Any convection that does develop will diminish this evening, with prevailing VFR conditions forecast for Tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 107 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 High pressure will build to the north through Tonight, then to the northeast Sunday. High pressure will remain centered to the northeast through the upcoming week, leading to a prolonged period of onshore flow. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible around the middle of the week. Rip Currents: Moderate through the weekend && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 97 72 95 71 / 0 10 30 0 SSI 89 78 87 77 / 0 10 30 20 JAX 94 74 91 74 / 0 10 30 10 SGJ 89 74 89 76 / 0 10 40 20 GNV 95 72 93 72 / 60 20 60 10 OCF 93 73 93 72 / 60 20 70 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$