372
FXUS62 KJAX 210633
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
233 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...INVEST 92-L APPROACHES OUR LOCAL COASTLINE TODAY...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE...
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Invest 92-L is about 200 miles away from Jacksonville, and will
continue to move towards the northeast Florida / southeast Georgia
coast, with little time to organize further. There remains
potential (50% chance) of this system developing into a short-
lived Tropical Depression early this morning before making
landfall in the late morning/early afternoon hours. Despite
Tropical Depression formation or not, hazards will remain the
same, heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and coastal impacts including
rough surf, high rip currents, and minor beach erosion during high
tide. Areas that have not received rainfall recently will see
beneficial rainfall totals around 1-2" along and east of I-95
today, with locally higher amounts possible. Wind gusts are likely
to stay below Wind Advisory today, with onshore gusts reaching
around 30 mph.

High temperatures will be a tad below normal for areas along and
east of US-301, staying in the mid to upper 80s. West of US-301
will see highs in the lower 90s. Scattered showers will remain
overnight along the east coast, with winds subsiding after sunset.
Mild low temperatures forecast, only falling into the 70s area-
wide with warmest lows on the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Upper level ridge will be centered over the Gulf Coast states well west of
our forecast area during this period. This supports near normal temperatures
during the period, with scattered to numerous showers and t-storms with
sea breeze interactions each day. High temperatures will be in the 90-95
range inland each day, with afternoon heat index values near 100, and upper
80s immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Upper level ridge will shift eastward over the forecast area Tuesday
and east of the area Wednesday, with an upper trough possibly moving over
the area Thursday. Considerable uncertainty exists with strength and timing
of this trough, with GFS more intense over the area compared to the ECM.
Latest consensus guidance more in line with ECM in showing not much
cooling Thursday with little reflection of a frontal passage. As a result,
consensus guidance shows above normal temperatures the entire upcoming work
week.

Latest guidance suggests a fairly wet pattern for our area with
daily bouts of scattered/numerous showers and t-storms with sea breeze
interactions in moist environment.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

MVFR ceilings around 2500ft and heavy showers will move onshore
and impact all TAF sites beginning this morning. Isolated
thunderstorms and gusty easterly winds will also be present
throughout the day. PROB30s are in place for the best chances for
time frame of heaviest showers and/or thunderstorm activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Weak low pressure situated about 200 miles to the east-southeast
of Jacksonville, Florida early Friday morning may organize into a
Tropical Depression later this morning as it progresses west-
northwestward across the Gulf Stream waters. Bands of gusty
showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in frequency and
intensity during the predawn hours on Friday, with this activity
continuing through late Friday afternoon before diminishing in
coverage as this weak low pressure center progresses inland.
Meanwhile, strong high pressure centered north of Bermuda will
gradually weaken as it settles southward this weekend. Small Craft
Advisory conditions will continue throughout our local waters
tonight and Friday, followed by winds and seas diminishing to
Caution levels on Friday night and then below Caution criteria on
Saturday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop over our local waters this weekend and into next week as
prevailing winds become southerly ahead of a weakening surface
trough that will settle over the southeastern states through
midweek.

Rip Currents: High rip current risk and rough surf continues
today for NE FL and SE GA beaches as elevated onshore winds
persist. Moderate risk will be in place on Saturday as winds
subside.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal risk of excessive
rainfall from Friday through Saturday, as locally heavy rainfall
totals of 2 to 3 inches will be possible along the Interstate 95
corridor as Invest 92-L impacts our region with bands of heavy
downpours. Rainfall amounts further inland will likely remain
below one inch. Rainfall will be mostly beneficial, but there will
be concerns for flooding at urban locations where rain bands
train repeatedly tomorrow and again on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  73  91  73 /  40  20  80  30
SSI  87  78  87  76 /  60  60  80  60
JAX  87  74  91  73 /  70  50  90  50
SGJ  87  76  91  75 /  70  60  90  60
GNV  89  73  92  72 /  70  50  90  40
OCF  90  74  94  74 /  70  40  90  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ450-
     452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$