318
FXUS62 KJAX 270513
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
113 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 717 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Best support for continued convection this evening will be near
the coast, south of interstate 10. This convection will dissipate
later this evening, with a dry night forecast. Lows in the middle
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Unusually hot and humid conditions for late June will stick around
through Friday with afternoon convection firing along the sea
breezes. Fairly deep southwesterly flow will be predominant amid a
deamplifying upper trough that will eventually be sheared being
sandwiched between two prominent upper ridges, one to the south and
another over the Southern Plains. Under this regime, a the Gulf sea
breeze will be dominant, likely kicking off an early bout of
convection through the late morning and early afternoon as it races
across to the northeast and collides with the pinned Atlantic sea
breeze each day. Weakening flow by Friday will allow a bit more
inland penetration of the Atlantic sea breeze realigning the
corridor of likely PoPs a bit further inland along and west of the I-
95. Main change between today and the Thursday/Friday period will be
a plume of moisture renegergizing PWATs to 2"+. Given this moisture
surge, shower and storm coverage will become numerous as sea breeze
and outflows interact during the afternoons. Convection will be
mainly diurnal in nature but a few persistent showers may push
later into the evening along a fizzling boundary laying across
portions of SE GA. Concerning storm hazards will be downburst
winds, mostly in the 30-50 mph neighborhood, and heavy downpours
and localized flooding concerns.

Temperatures will be hot with peak heat index values in the 103-109
degree range each day. The hottest areas will be right along the
coast where the sea breeze push could usher in dewpoints closer to
80F. Lows will be fairly balmy each night, hovering the mid/upper
70s to 80 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Diurnal convection, dominated by sea breezes and their
interactions, continues through the weekend. Weakening flow will
promote an inland push of both the Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze,
reducing storm chances for coastal zones over the weekend. Wet
period will continue into early next week but as upper ridging
gradually builds from the west and a shortwave attempts to ride
along its periphery and into the region. Guidance is maintain and
easterly wave tracking across the southern Gulf and western
Caribbean next week, which may also boost shower and storm
chances next week amid a well moistened profile. Abnormally hot
and humid conditions remain entrenched and will not budge through
next week with potential for Excessive Heat headlines, not
unreasonable amid the lengthy stretch of heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the morning for all the TAF
sites. PROB30s are in place for diurnal thunderstorm activity
beginning in the early afternoon for GNV, and later in the
afternoon for the rest of the sites. Convection will taper off
after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

High pressure ridging over the area with fairly consistent
troughing will create winds predominately from the southwest in
the mornings and overnight and then shifting to south-
southeasterly in the afternoons as the sea-breeze makes its way
onshore. Daily afternoon showers and storms are possible over the
local waters into the weekend that could linger into the evening
hours.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for NE FL and SE GA
beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  74  94  75 /  60  30  50  30
SSI  94  78  92  78 /  50  30  50  30
JAX  96  76  96  75 /  60  20  60  20
SGJ  96  77  94  77 /  60  20  60  30
GNV  94  74  94  73 /  60  10  60  10
OCF  93  76  94  75 /  70  20  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$