Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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626 FXUS62 KJAX 201520 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1120 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1119 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Forecast is on track this morning as breezy easterly onshore winds 15-25 mph are being observed along the coast to about the 10-20 mph range inland with highest gusts so far near 30 mph. Scattered low topped coastal showers that moved onshore early this morning mainly over NE FL and treked inland along I-10 towards Valdosta with other showers scattered over NE FL. This activity will shift inland towards I-75 through lunch time with another light round moveing onshore the SE GA and NE FL coast north of St Augustine in the early to mid afternoon hours. Partly cloudy skies and the onshore flow 15-25 gusting at times to 30-35 will keep highs cooler at the coast in the mid 80s approaching around 90 degrees over I-75/US441 corridors westward. Tonight, a weak low with disorganized showers and thunderstorms north to northeast of the Bahamas will move west to west northwest towards the NE FL coast south of St Augustine with rounds of numerous to widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. Could see locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches along the NE FL coast to the St Johns river, but most likely amounts will be in the half inch to an inch range for most locations over NE FL and coastal SE GA with less amounts over inland SE GA. A few heavier showers may also bring wind gusts up to 35-40 mph, but winds will mostly be breezy at the immediate coast overnight in the 15-20 mph range gusting to 30 mph and 10-15 mph inland. The elevated onshore winds at the coast will keep lows in the upper 70s at the coast, mid 70s along I-95, lows 70s inland with some upper 60s northwest of Waycross. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Strong onshore/Easterly flow will continue today with scattered showers and isolated storms moving onshore at times with gusty winds to 35-40 mph. Max temps will remain at or slightly below normal with highs in the middle 80s at the Atlantic beaches, upper 80s along the I-95 corridor and around 90F over far inland areas. Inverted surface trough approaches from the East over the Coastal Waters tonight and likely arrives at the NE FL Coastal areas late tonight with numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and gusty wind potential. Still appears as this feature is moving too fast to become organized into significant tropical system, but some convective gusts to gale force and localized flooding possible in urban areas and along the beachfront locations during times of high tide late tonight. The elevated winds tonight will keep temps above normal in the 70s inland and near 80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas, but may drop a few degrees lower in heavier rainfall activity. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Area of low pressure in an inverted trough will move west across north central FL Friday morning. Expecting showers with embedded thunderstorms with this feature, along with elevated winds and gusts. Highs Friday will be a little cooler than normal due the clouds and rainfall passing through. High pressure will build to the northeast behind the trough Friday afternoon through Saturday. This pattern will continue the onshore flow pattern, but the gradient will be more relaxed, so so not expecting winds to be as elevated. Above average shower chances will continue in the onshore flow. Diurnal heating could lead to a few afternoon storms on Saturday. Lows Friday night will generally be in the lower to mid 70s, except a little warmer near the coast. Temperatures Saturday will trend above normal, with highs ranging from the lower 90s at the coast, to the mid 90s inland. The high will move further away to the east northeast Saturday night, with the flow becoming more from the south/southeast. Lows away from the coast in the mid 70s, upper 70s coast. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The high will continue to drift away to the east this period, as a trough moves into the southeastern US and stalls. An increasingly moist southwest flow will become the trend this period. This pattern will produce above normal chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be above normal throughout this period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 713 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 MVFR CIGS/VSBYS have approved to VFR this morning. There will be a brief in the rainfall for most of the day today with gusty E-NE winds at 15G25 knots and isolated to widely scattered showers (VCSH). As winds become more NE tonight after sunset expect more widespread MVFR CIGS to develop with numerous light rain showers and isolated t-storms developing for the coastal TAFs after 06z during the predawn hours as a inverted trof moves toward the coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Small Craft Advisories will continue through Tonight with East winds in the 20-25 knot range with frequent gusts to 30 knots at times. Models still on track with inverted surface trough under area of low pressure aloft pushing into the FL East Coast Atlantic waters later Tonight and/or Early Friday which will likely continue strong onshore flow at Small Craft Advisory levels with low chances of potential Gale Force winds if an organized low pressure center can develop. Winds will then shift to the Southeast following the wave by this weekend with a decrease in wind speeds to 10-15 knots and slowly subsiding seas below headline levels. Rip Currents: The strong onshore flow will continue a high risk of rip currents with surf/breakers of 5-7 ft Today and Friday, along with high surf headlines continuing along the NE FL coastal areas. With the approach of the full moon later this week, water levels will start to run above normal but coastal flooding is not expected at this time in the onshore flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 90 69 91 72 / 10 40 60 30 SSI 85 76 87 76 / 20 60 80 50 JAX 87 74 88 75 / 40 70 80 40 SGJ 86 75 88 77 / 40 70 80 40 GNV 90 72 91 72 / 30 60 80 20 OCF 91 72 94 75 / 20 40 70 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ124-125- 133-138. High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$