249
FXUS62 KJAX 190515
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
115 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Still anticipating higher storm coverage near the northeast
Florida coast this afternoon and early evening, with gusty winds
being the primary threat. By about 8pm, most convection will
simmer down or be offshore, and with calm winds and higher
humidity, patchy inland fog will be possible. Lows will be in the
upper 60s across most of inland SE GA, and lower 70s elsewhere
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Thursday, the surface front will edge southward across NE FL
through the day and interact with diurnal instability and sea
breezes to produce scattered showers and isolated storms mainly
across NE FL, with a another area of rain chances (20%) across
coastal SE GA in the afternoon under a drier and more stable NNW
flow aloft. Friday, steering flow transitions to NE with drier air
limiting shower and thunderstorm coverage. Continued with a low
chance 20% chance of showers and isolated storms across the NE FL
St. Johns River Basin mainly during the afternoon as surface winds
become northeast and breezy near the coast. Patchy inland late
night fog is possible both nights. Temperatures will trend near
normal values with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Breezy northeast to east winds return this weekend with surface
fronts south of the region and high pressure to the northeast.
This regime will bring coastal showers onshore, with some
expansion with diurnal heating across inland NE FL in the
afternoon. Although localized heavy rainfall could cause a return
of flooding issues, weekend showers appear more transient with
less deep available moisture compared to last week`s coastal
deluges. With the return of breezy onshore flow, hazardous surf
zones conditions develop once again with a high rip current risk
and minor tidal flooding for our coastal communities and moderate
river flooding potential within the St. Johns River basin. The
strength of ENE winds weaken Monday into Tuesday as the surface
ridge center edges southward and weakens coastal convergence, but
a coastal trough with increased moisture returns Tuesday into
Wednesday with a return of morning coastal showers expanding
inland into the afternoon with isolated thunderstorm potential.
Temperatures will trend near to just below seasonal values.

The tropics are expected to become more active next week, with a
tropical system possibly forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico
and drifting northward. Use this weekend to restock supply kits,
review family evacuation plans and considering some shelter
maintenance like trimming trees. Monitor official tropical
forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and
local emergency management officials.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Patchy fog and low stratus will develop across most sites except
SGJ with MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys anticipated mainly between
07-12Z. LIFR conditions will be possible at VQQ and GNV. Fog will
lift and dissipate after 12Z. Calm winds overnight become north-
northwesterly as a cold front moves through the area this morning.
Easterly winds develop at the coastal and Duval TAF sites between
17-20Z as the weak Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland. Low chances
for rain this afternoon with maybe a shower passing by a TAF site
but chances are too low to include at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

A weak frontal boundary and pressure pattern will linger over the
region through the middle of the week. The sea breeze returns
with afternoon wind shifts to onshore for the nearshore waters
through Thursday. A frontal passage is expected late this week
with high pressure building down the eastern seaboard by this
weekend. This will lead to an increase in Northeast winds by
Friday and into the weekend with Small Craft Advisory headlines
possible.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for NE FL and SE GA
beaches continues Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Have expired the Coastal Flood advisories along most of the NE FL
Atlantic coast and downgraded Duval county to an advisory with
lighter onshore winds anticipated for this afternoon. Lingering
trapped tides and higher astronomical tides will continue minor
to moderate coastal flooding within the St. Johns through at least
mid-week. The moderate flooding will be mainly confined to areas
south of Jacksonville. The higher tides with this full moon cycle
will continue into September 26th with the peak levels between
Sept. 19th and 21st. Will likely need to reissue a Coastal Flood
Advisory along the Atlantic coast for Friday into the weekend with
the high tides and a surge of northeasterly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  67  87  66 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  85  72  83  72 /  10   0  10   0
JAX  88  71  87  71 /  20   0  10   0
SGJ  88  73  86  73 /  20  10  20  10
GNV  90  69  89  68 /  30   0  20   0
OCF  91  71  90  71 /  40   0  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ033-038-132-
     137.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ125-225-325.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$