371
FXUS62 KJAX 221036
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
636 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Ongoing light showers Saturday morning along the coast will give
way to scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon as the tropical airmass, diurnal instability
and Atlantic and Gulf coast seabreezes interact. Highs will reach
the lower 90s over most of NE FL and inland SE GA, with slightly
cooler temperatures near the Georgia coast due to increased cloud
cover from the weak tropical low. Activity will linger for a few
hours after sunset over northeast Florida, low temperatures will
stay mild in the 70s area-wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

During this period, we`ll have an upper ridge of high pressure
centered over the western Gulf Coast states, while an upper trough
remains stationary just offshore of the FL/GA coastline...with
northwest flow aloft over the forecast area. At the surface, we`ll
have daily sea breeze interactions generating scattered to
numerous showers and storms, with greater coverage across NE FL
compared to SE GA each day. A warming trend is expected as 850mb
temperatures rise from around 18C today to 21-22C Sunday and
Monday, likely to translate to above normal high temperatures in
the mid 90s inland, near 90 coast Sunday, with mid-upper 90s
inland Monday, lower 90s coast...a few locations in interior SE GA
could peak around 100 degrees. Afternoon heat index values each
day will likely be in the 100-105 range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The upper pattern changes little until Wednesday Night and
Thursday when an upper trough digs SE toward our forecast area,
with the ECM a bit more intense with trough than the GFS, a
reverse of what was shown by models 24hrs earlier. Both models
leave behind an upper low over the region, with the ECM
positioning it over the forecast area Friday, while the GFS has it
over the nrn Gulf of Mexico. Regardless, with a moist environment
in place, and active sea breezes with above normal inland temps,
expecting to see scattered to numerous showers/storms each
afternoon.

Above normal high and low temperatures will continue Tuesday and
Wednesday...with some areas particularly in interior SE GA seeing
high temperatures near 100 degrees.... and with afternoon heat
index values of 100-105 each day. Current consensus guidance
maintains above normal temperatures right through Friday, but
could end up close to normal if the ECM pattern verifies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

SSI is the last of the sites to have ceiling restrictions, and
likely will continue through the morning as the weak tropical low
lingers. Isolated thunderstorms will develop across NE FL and SE
GA this afternoon, PROB30s in place for best guess on timing of
impacts for the TAF sites in Duval and SGJ.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Strong high pressure to the northeast will weaken and shift
towards Bermuda this weekend with decreasing winds and seas with
a more typical summer sea breeze-like pattern returning into early
next week. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop over our local waters this weekend and into next week as
prevailing winds become southerly ahead of a weakening surface
trough that will settle over the southeastern states through
midweek.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for NE FL and SE GA
beaches as winds shift more southerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  73  95  75 /  60  30  50  10
SSI  86  76  92  78 /  70  60  70  20
JAX  89  74  93  75 /  70  60  80  20
SGJ  89  75  92  76 /  70  70  80  30
GNV  94  73  93  73 /  70  50  80  10
OCF  94  74  94  75 /  60  50  80  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$