Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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860 FXUS62 KJAX 100038 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 838 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 827 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Forecast on track as heat slowly subsides this evening under clear skies and light southwest winds. A bit milder tonight with lows in the 70-75F range over inland areas and upper 70s/near 80 along the Atlantic Coast. Some patchy fog possible over inland NE FL towards sunrise. West to Southwest flow at 10-15 mph on Monday will continue very hot temps in the upper 90s/near 100 with heat indices peaking near 105F. Latest 18Z model runs still not on the same page for amount of convection expected for the Monday afternoon/evening time frame with at least scattered storms possible ahead of weakening frontal boundary pushing into inland SE GA in the 5pm-10pm time frame, some of which could be strong to isolated severe with gusty winds, while lingering drier airmass aloft across most of NE FL will keep any convection isolated during the late afternoon/evening hours. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Dry and a little warmer tonight with shallow inland ground fog potential, mainly across NE FL near and south of the I-10 corridor. High pressure begins to nudge south of the local area as a trough deepens across the eastern CONUS. Expect increasing mid and high clouds from the NW overnight over SE GA while mostly clear skies continue across NE FL. With the approaching trough, westerly winds will remain a little more elevated tonight (2-4 mph) bringing slightly warmer low temperatures compared to this morning, ranging from the lower 70s inland to mid/upper 70s toward the St. Johns River basin & Atlantic coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Frontal trough is expected to sink south into southern GA during the day on Monday. An upper wave is forecast to move along this boundary Monday afternoon and evening, which will help to promote higher chances for convection, especially over SE GA. Lower chances will be expected across NE FL on Monday, but combination of increasing moisture, diurnal instability and sea breeze interactions will result in convection. Another above normal day is expected on Monday, with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s. The frontal zone will lay out near the GA/FL line Monday night. While convective chances will diminish during the evening due to loss of diurnal heating, with the boundary still in place activity may linger through the overnight. Lows in the lower 70s. For Tuesday, the surface boundary will linger over area as it weakens. At the same time a wave of moisture will move north northeast across region as energy gathers over the Gulf. The greatest chances for convection will be over NE FL, where it will generally be a wet and stormy day. Once again, this activity could linger through the night, especially for NE FL, which will be along and south of the boundary. With the added cloud cover and rainfall, highs will be a little lower, generally in the lower 90s. Lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Long range model trends have changed over the last 24 hours. The models had been focusing the moisture plume from a Gulf system over region this period. The latest runs keep the plume over central to southern FL for much of this period, with the Gulf low taking much longer to develop and move further north. While daily convective chances are expected this period, these chances and the overall rainfall amounts will be lower in Todays forecast than yesterday. Depending on which way the rainfall plume focuses temperatures will be affected. With the current location, highs will generally be within a few degrees of seasonal averages. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 711 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR conds expected through the period with only rainfall chances towards the end of the TAF period at SSI where approaching frontal boundary and increased moisture may interact with the East Coast sea breeze for VCSH after 18Z and VCTS after 22Z, meanwhile conds remain dry at the NE FL TAF sites with just a few more clouds expected as East Coast sea breeze front presses inland slowly. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A frontal boundary will move south into region on Monday, and stall over area through Tuesday. A weak frontal zone will remain over the region into next weekend as a plume of moisture rides over area from energy expected to develop in the Gulf. Rip Currents: Low through Monday && .CLIMATE... Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Record high temperatures at official local climate sites: June 9 June 10 -------------------------- Jacksonville 101/1872 100/1954 Gainesville 99/1907 99/1899 Alma, GA 99/1993 103/1954 Craig Airport 97/2006 99/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 96 71 92 / 10 60 60 30 SSI 77 92 74 89 / 10 40 60 60 JAX 73 99 73 94 / 0 20 30 70 SGJ 74 98 74 93 / 10 20 40 80 GNV 70 97 72 94 / 0 10 30 80 OCF 70 97 73 92 / 0 20 40 80 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$