513
FXUS62 KJAX 170523
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
123 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure ridge will remain centered to the northeast through
Tonight. This will continue the prevailing onshore flow. The
combination of weak waves moving through the flow, and diurnal
heating will lead to isolated to scattered chances for convection.
As waves move through, the tightened pressure gradient will result
in elevated and gusty winds through the day. Winds will remain
somewhat elevated Tonight due to pressure gradient, but will lose
much of the gustiness once past the day time mixing. A few
coastal showers/storms will be possible overnight, but expect much
of this activity to remain over the waters.

Highs Today will range from the upper 80s at the coast, to the lower
90s inland. For Tonight, lows will range from the lower to mid 70s
inland to the upper 70s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Tuesday...Not much change in the pattern as high pressure remains
locked in north of the region and breezy to almost windy easterly
flow will continue at 15-25G35-40mph range at the Atlantic Coast
with a high risk of rip current and 10-20G30-35mph range over
inland areas during the afternoon hours. This flow pattern will
continue to stream rounds of scattered showers and isolated storms
from the coastal waters and into land areas through the day with
gusty winds the main threat from storm activity over inland areas
during the afternoon hours. Temps at or slightly below normal
levels with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic
Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over far inland areas.

Tuesday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic
Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms
pushing onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions
will exist over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and
75-80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep
temps elevated.

Wednesday...Breezy onshore/easterly flow continue at 15-25G35-40mph
range at the Atlantic Coast with a high risk of rip current and
10-20G30-35mph range over inland areas during the afternoon hours.
This flow pattern will continue to stream rounds of scattered
showers and isolated storms from the coastal waters and into land
areas through the day with gusty winds the main threat from storm
activity over inland areas during the afternoon hours. Temps at or
slightly below normal levels with highs in the mid/upper 80s
along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over
far inland areas.

Wednesday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic
Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms
pushing onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions
will exist over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and
75-80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep
temps elevated.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Thursday...GFS/ECMWF model runs are still trying to spin up a low
pressure system underneath mid level trough/disturbance pushing
quickly westward from the Bahamas into the FL peninsula. Still way
too early if this system becomes actual tropical low pressure
system or more likely a disorganized area of widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms with a locally heavy rainfall and
strong gusty wind potential during this period. Bottom line during
this period will be an increase in rainfall chances to 50-80%
with numerous to widespread showers and embedded heavy storms
pushing onshore at times with strong gusty winds as the main
threat. Max temps will remain at or slightly below normal levels
with the increased rainfall chances with highs in the mid/upper
80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and still reaching into
the lower 90s over inland areas. With most of the local NE FL/SE
GA area having below normal rainfall so far this month, this will
be welcome rainfall in many locations, but localized flood
potential will mainly exist in urban areas and along the Atlantic
Coast during high tide cycles and the stronger onshore flow may
produce minor tidal flooding along the Atlantic Coast beaches with
the approach of the full moon phase.

Friday/Saturday/Sunday...In the wake of departing low pressure
system, a weaker high pressure ridge will build in just north of
the region and still expect near breezy East-Southeast winds at
10-15G20-25 mph, but more normal East Coast sea breeze convection
expected as it moves inland both days and lingering deeper
tropical moisture will still lead to above normal rainfall chances
in the 40-70% range with daily scattered to numerous showers and
storms. Max temps bounce back to slightly above normal levels with
highs in the upper 80s/near 90 along the Atlantic Coast/I-95
corridor with lower to middle 90s over inland areas. By the
weekend the steering flow begins to become more southerly and
helps to push afternoon convection closer to the Atlantic Coast.
The increase in Max temps back to above normal levels will push
daily maximum heat indices closer to 105F at just heat advisory
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Prevailing VFR conditions forecast Today. Gusty winds are expected
at all area TAF sites, especially near the coast. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms are expected from mid morning through
the afternoon. Brief restrictions in and near these storms are
possible. This convection will largely dissipate with loss of
diurnal heating in the evening, but will linger over the coastal
waters.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A ridge of high pressure centered to the northeast will persist
through mid week. Small Craft Advisory level conditions to begin
late Tuesday. A wave of low pressure is expected to move west
across area Thursday into Friday. At this time, elevated winds and
seas along with higher than normal rain chances can be expected
with this system.

Rip Currents: High through at least mid week

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  70  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
SSI  88  78  85  76 /  30  20  40  30
JAX  90  73  88  73 /  30  20  50  20
SGJ  88  76  87  75 /  30  20  60  40
GNV  92  71  91  71 /  20  20  40  10
OCF  92  72  92  71 /  20  20  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...None.
&&

$$