792
FXUS62 KJAX 211633
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1233 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure over the Carolinas will continue to build SW today
and settle over the SE US states tonight. This will continue the
breezy onshore/NE flow along the Atlantic Coast of NE FL/SE GA
with any isolated shower activity remaining from St. Augustine
southward through tonight, with scattered showers and isolated
storms over the NE FL Atlantic Coastal waters. Following patchy
dense fog over inland areas this morning, expecting mostly sunny
skies and Max temps into the upper 80s/near 90 over well inland
areas and lower/middle 80s along the I-95 corridor and Atlantic
Coastal areas. Breezy NE winds are expected at the Atlantic
Coastal areas today in the 15-20G25-30 mph range and slightly less
over inland areas at 10-15G20-25 mph. As the high settles over the
region tonight, expect winds to decrease after sunset, remaining
in the 5-10 mph range along the Atlantic Coast and dropping off to
less than 5 mph over inland areas. Low temps falling into the mid
to upper 60s over inland areas, light winds and clear skies should
allow for another night of patchy/areas of fog along with locally
dense fog expected towards sunrise Sunday morning. Lows in the
lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)

Patchy light fog has started to develop inland and will likely build
into a few areas of fog from the Suwannee Valley northward into
inland SE GA over the next few hours. Locally dense, transient fog
may develop in those areas as well, with visibility dropping to
1/2 mile or less.

High pressure wedging in from the north will compress gradients,
bringing a "mini" surge of northeasterly winds today. A subtle,
inverted trough offshore has enhanced shower activity mainly
across the adjacent Atlantic waters. The northeasterly low level
flow will push waves of low-topped showers into the coastal areas
from St Augustine south through the day. Due to the dry air
aloft, thunderstorm development is unlikely. However, a few
showers rolling onshore may offer breezy gusts up to 35 mph.
Outside of any showers winds will be breezy along the coast,
gusting up to 25 mph. Breeziness will begin to relax this evening
as the gradients begin to decompress with a gradual weakening of
the surface ridge. Temperature trends today will follow very close
to yesterday with highs pushing into the mid/upper 80s except at
the coast where low/mid 80s are expected.

Tonight, relaxing winds and clear skies will set up the potential
for another night of patchy fog development. Lows will be warmest
at the coast (mid 70s) due to the lingering onshore winds. Inland
areas will fall to the upper 60s and low 70s again.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday night)

Dry and quiet conditions will continue during the later half of
the weekend and into the upcoming work week as high pressure and
dry air (PWATs <=1.5") sits over the region. Northeasterly flow
will begin to weaken through the day on Sunday and shift to become
easterly by Monday. With the shift of the winds, the coastal
advisory will stay in effect through the afternoon on Sunday. The
onshore flow may bring some showers on Sunday afternoon for
coastal locations south of St. Augustine and towards the inland
locations in north central FL. Otherwise, patchy to areas of fog
is expected for far inland locations as clear skies and weak
overnight winds during the overnight hours heading into Sunday.
Temperature highs for this weekend will be in the mid to upper 80s
along the coast, with highs in the lower 90s for inland
locations. Overnight lows expected to be in the upper 60s for
locations across SE GA and in the lower 70s across NE FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)

The dry weather will continue through the first half of the
upcoming work week, as dry air (PWATs <1.2") and high pressure
will remain over the region. An easterly- southeasterly flow will
allow for breezy winds along the coast. By midweek, some moisture
is expected to begin to return to the area, coming from the south-
southeast. The question still remains for the potential
development (60% chance of formation over the next 7 days from the
NHC) of a tropical system over the Gulf of Mexico and where the
system would track. Use this weekend to restock supply kits and
review family evacuation plans. Monitor official tropical
forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and
local emergency management officials.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Northeast winds have steadily increased today along with SCT to
occasionally BKN Cumulus cloud deck across all TAF sites in the
2500-3500 ft range which will continue until sunset, when the
diurnal uptick in clouds/winds will fade through the evening hours
with VFR conds through 06Z at all TAF sites. Light to near calm
winds over inland TAF sites will support IFR vsbys at VQQ and MVFR
vsbys at GNV under clear skies, while the rest of the TAF sites
will remain VFR through the night. Diurnal Cu clouds will develop
once again during the morning hours on Sunday, mainly in the 2000
to 3000 ft range, but will likely remain mostly SCT through 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure building from the north will usher a brief surge of
northeast winds across the waters today and elevate seas; small
craft are urged to exercise caution. A weaker pressure pattern
will begin Sunday and continue through the middle of next week as
high pressure extends to the east. Late next week, an area of
disturbed weather in the western Caribbean may develop into a
broad tropical system as it tracks northward into the Gulf of
Mexico. Interests are urged to monitor the National Hurricane
Center for forecasts and updates with the potential tropical
disturbance next week.

RIP CURRENTS...A "mini" surge of northeasterly flow will elevate
surf and increase rip current risk to High this afternoon at all
beaches. Winds will ease up tonight but continue onshore resulting
in a Moderate Risk on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A Coastal Flood Advisory continues for the St Johns River basin
(including the Intracoastal Waterway) and Atlantic coast of NE FL
through at least the next three high tide cycles. Localized areas
of low-end Moderate tidal flooding will be possible with this
early afternoon`s high tide within the St Johns River between the
Buckman Bridge and Mayport, including the Trout River. Lowering
astronomical tidal departures and weakening onshore flow will
lower tidal levels early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  65  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  83  71  85  73 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  86  67  88  72 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  86  72  86  74 /  10   0  10   0
GNV  90  66  90  70 /   0   0  10   0
OCF  91  67  92  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ033-038-124-
     125-132-133-137-138-225-325.

     High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-
     125-133-138.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

     High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-
     166.

AM...None.
&&

$$