Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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532 FXUS62 KJAX 141718 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 118 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 913 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf No major updates needed on the forecast this morning, a few showers will continue to move onshore this morning with potential for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon over NE FL. With stronger onshore winds this afternoon, temperatures along the coast will be more pleasant with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Inland highs will reach the mid 90s with partly cloudy skies. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 105 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Region will be between high pressure to the north northwest and a frontal boundary to the south southeast Today. This will provide for an onshore flow Today. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm will move ashore off the Atlantic this morning. This activity will push inland through the day, with activity focusing on the I75 corridor late in the afternoon. In general, precipitation chances will be low throughout the day. With loss of diurnal heating activity is expected to diminish this evening, with a dry overnight forecast. Temperatures will be above normal Today, with coolest readings at the coast, due to the onshore flow. Lows Tonight, will range from the lower 70s inland, to the mid 70s coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 105 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Saturday...Pocket of drier air aloft will limit rainfall chances ahead of southward moving frontal boundary across the SE US north of the local area and this will bring very hot temps into the mid/upper 90s over inland areas, while East Coast sea breeze along the Atlantic Beaches/I-95 corridor will keep Max Temps topping out in the lower 90s. These highs will push heat indices into the 100-105F range during the afternoon hours. Convection will remain isolated across SE GA with scattered showers/storms across NE FL, mainly south of the I-10 corridor. Saturday Night...Mainly dry and warm conditions as frontal boundary lingers just north of the local area and expecting mainly just convection over the Atlantic Coastal waters. Above normal temps continue with lows in the lower to middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near 80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas. Sunday...High pressure starts to build into the Carolinas and moisture from dissipating frontal boundary that was north of the region will push into the local area as Easterly low level flow become more breezy along the Atlantic Coast. Temperatures will remain above normal over inland areas in the middle 90s along with heat indices still in the 100-105F range, while the onshore flow will keep highs closer to 90F along the I-95 corridor and Atlantic beaches. Scattered showers and storms are expected area wide with rainfall chances in the 30-50% range. Sunday Night...Easterly flow continues with showers/storms over the Atlantic Coastal waters and pushing into the Atlantic Coastal Counties at times and this will keep temps elevated in the upper 70s/near 80 along the coast and lower to middle 70s over inland areas with mainly dry conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 105 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 High pressure ridge axis remains in place at the surface through the period with breezy Easterly flow at 15-25 mph along the Atlantic Coastal areas and 10-20 mph over inland areas each day. This flow pattern will return temps to near normal values with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over inland areas. The onshore flow will continue scattered showers/storms over the Atlantic Coastal waters through the period that will move onshore each day as the East Coast sea breeze moves well inland. Rainfall chances will be in the 30-50% range early in the week, with highest chances across NE FL, then as mid level trough pushes in from the East by the Wednesday/Thursday time frame, which will bring deeper moisture and increase rainfall chances into the 60-80% range for NE FL and into the 40-60% range for SE GA as the East Coast sea breeze become more active as it moves onshore each day, along with more convection over the Atlantic Coastal Waters pushing onshore into coastal areas through the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 On and off MVFR ceilings have been impacting most of the TAF sites today, with that trend possible continuing for a few more hours. Tonight, placed MVFR visibilities in for VQQ and touched upon patchy fog impacts for JAX and CRG, although confidence was too low to place visibilities at MVFR level at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 105 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The area will be between a frontal boundary to the south and weak high pressure to the north northwest Today. An area of low pressure will track to the northeast along the frontal zone this afternoon through Saturday. Stronger high pressure will build to the north northeast Saturday night through Sunday ushering in a prolonged period of onshore flow, as this high will remain to the northeast through the middle of next week. Rip Currents: Moderate through Saturday && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 99 72 96 / 0 20 10 30 SSI 76 90 78 88 / 0 10 10 30 JAX 72 96 74 92 / 0 20 10 40 SGJ 74 92 75 90 / 0 20 10 40 GNV 71 98 72 96 / 10 40 10 50 OCF 72 96 72 96 / 10 60 20 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$