322
FXUS62 KJAX 230603
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
203 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 18Z. Showers and thunderstorms will begin developing along
the inland moving Gulf and Atlantic sea breeze boundaries on
Sunday afternoon, with activity merging near and east of the U.S.
Highway 301 corridor during the late afternoon and early evening
hours. We have included a PROB30 group at each terminal for
briefly gusty winds and MVFR conditions during heavier downpours
for the afternoon and early evening hours on Sunday. VFR
conditions should then prevail by 04Z Monday. Southerly winds
sustained at 5-10 knots overnight will shift to southwesterly
after sunrise, with speeds increasing to around 10 knots by 16Z.
The Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes will move inland on Sunday
afternoon, resulting in surface winds shifting to southeasterly
and increasing to 10-15 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals
towards 19Z, with these southeasterly winds reaching the CRG and
JAX terminals as convection begins to increase in coverage after
20Z. After convection wanes on Sunday evening, expect southerly
surface winds to remain sustained at 5-10 knots at the inland
terminals and 10-15 knots at the coastal terminals.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 124 PM Sat Jun 22 2024

An upper trough remains stationary just offshore of the FL/GA
coastline while Bermuda ridge sets up to our east...with
northwest flow aloft over the forecast area with upstream ridging
building in. We will have a predominate W-SW flow regime Sunday
and Monday with an active Gulf flow and sea breeze. On Sunday, the
west coast sea breeze may meet up with east coast seabreeze near
I-95 during the afternoon. On Monday, looks to be more of a
straight forward Gulf of Mexico west seabreeze regime. Both days
there will be scattered to numerous showers and storms with
greatest coverage across NE FL. Unseasonably hot temperatures are
expected through the short term period with mid/upper level
ridging extending over our area from the west with ridge
retrograding slightly on Monday. 850mb temperatures will rise to
21-22C Sunday and Monday, likely to translate to above normal high
temperatures in the mid 90s inland, near 90 coast Sunday, with
mid-upper 90s inland Monday, lower 90s coast...a few locations in
interior SE GA could peak just shy or near 100 degrees. Afternoon
heat index values each day will likely be in the 95-105 range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The upper pattern changes little Tuesday until Wednesday Night
and Thursday when an upper trough digs SE toward our forecast
area, With a moist environment in place, and active sea breezes
with above normal inland temps, expecting to see scattered to
numerous showers/storms each afternoon.

Above normal high and low temperatures will continue Tuesday and
Wednesday...with some areas particularly in interior SE GA seeing
high temperatures near 100 degrees.... and with afternoon heat
index values of 100-105 each day. Current consensus guidance
maintains above normal temperatures right through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

High pressure will shift towards Bermuda this weekend with
decreasing winds and seas with a more typical summer sea breeze-
like pattern returning into early next week. Rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop over our local waters this
weekend and into next week as prevailing winds become southerly
ahead of a weakening surface trough that will settle over the
southeastern states through midweek.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for NE FL and SE GA
beaches as winds shift more southerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  75  98  76 /  40  10  40  30
SSI  91  78  95  79 /  60  20  40  30
JAX  93  75  97  76 /  70  20  50  20
SGJ  92  75  95  77 /  70  30  50  30
GNV  93  73  94  74 /  70  20  70  20
OCF  93  75  94  76 /  70  30  80  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$