Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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832 FXUS62 KJAX 221753 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 153 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Drier air on the west side of the low just north of the Altamaha River in Liberty County have really limited land based convection with drier continental airmass and subsidence with most convection being maritime based. This low is forecast to remain stationary or meander very slowly around the area with a slight drift to the west for the next 18 hours depending on the model. Have tempered precipitation chances for the rest of the this afternoon to mainly to isolated to widely scattered and mainly east of highway 301. By late tonight the Bermuda High may slide a bit farther east, ushering in a light WSW flow. This could lead to more storms in the morning across the Gulf that drift onshore into the Suwannee Valley during the pre-dawn hours. With the low in the vicinity of interior SE GA another convective area may develop toward daybreak on the east side of the inland low with PWATs between 1.75 to just over 2 inches. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 124 PM Sat Jun 22 2024 An upper trough remains stationary just offshore of the FL/GA coastline while Bermuda ridge sets up to our east...with northwest flow aloft over the forecast area with upstream ridging building in. We will have a predominate W-SW flow regime Sunday and Monday with an active Gulf flow and sea breeze. On Sunday, the west coast sea breeze may meet up with east coast seabreeze near I-95 during the afternoon. On Monday, looks to be more of a straight forward Gulf of Mexico west seabreeze regime. Both days there will be scattered to numerous showers and storms with greatest coverage across NE FL. Unseasonably hot temperatures are expected through the short term period with mid/upper level ridging extending over our area from the west with ridge retrograding slightly on Monday. 850mb temperatures will rise to 21-22C Sunday and Monday, likely to translate to above normal high temperatures in the mid 90s inland, near 90 coast Sunday, with mid-upper 90s inland Monday, lower 90s coast...a few locations in interior SE GA could peak just shy or near 100 degrees. Afternoon heat index values each day will likely be in the 95-105 range. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The upper pattern changes little Tuesday until Wednesday Night and Thursday when an upper trough digs SE toward our forecast area, With a moist environment in place, and active sea breezes with above normal inland temps, expecting to see scattered to numerous showers/storms each afternoon. Above normal high and low temperatures will continue Tuesday and Wednesday...with some areas particularly in interior SE GA seeing high temperatures near 100 degrees.... and with afternoon heat index values of 100-105 each day. Current consensus guidance maintains above normal temperatures right through Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 149 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The coastal Georgia surface low is now north of our area and largely devoid of significant convection. Right now there are a few showers rotating around it with the most significant convection well offshore. With daytime heating going to give it the benefit of the doubt and leave TEMPOs for TSRA in the TAFs until 2302 utc, but suspect most activity at any one field will be very brief and mainly showers. && .MARINE... Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 High pressure will shift towards Bermuda this weekend with decreasing winds and seas with a more typical summer sea breeze- like pattern returning into early next week. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over our local waters this weekend and into next week as prevailing winds become southerly ahead of a weakening surface trough that will settle over the southeastern states through midweek. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for NE FL and SE GA beaches as winds shift more southerly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 95 75 98 / 20 50 10 40 SSI 75 91 78 95 / 50 60 20 40 JAX 74 93 75 97 / 40 70 20 50 SGJ 74 92 75 95 / 40 70 30 50 GNV 72 93 73 94 / 20 80 20 70 OCF 75 93 75 94 / 40 80 30 80 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$