Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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284 FXUS63 KJKL 160811 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 411 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and somewhat humid weather arrives today and persists through the upcoming week. Afternoon heat indices may peak around 100 at some locations. - There is a potential for thunderstorms today, primarily near and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway and Hwy-80 corridor. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected area wide on Monday. The greatest probability is in the afternoon and evening hours each day. - Our next chance for rain or thunderstorms won`t be until Saturday. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 410 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2024 It`s heating up today! Take precautions. A warm front will be lifting north through the state today, increasing the southerly flow across the region. This will result in WAA and also an uptick in moisture. Clouds will be on the increase as a result during the afternoon. Can`t rule out a few showers/thunderstorms developing during the afternoon as a result of this boundary moving through. All models show best convection chances to our south, across TN, and expanding into our southern CWA. The northern JKL counties look to remain dry. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 90s, but with humidity added in, it will feel more like the upper 90s. Heat indices may near 100 degrees in a few places. As we head into the overnight, the warm front will be north of the state, and clouds will dissipate with loss of mixing. The light southerly winds will make a good setup for decoupling in the valleys, so expect some decent ridge/valley temperature difference. That being said, we are still in a very warm airmass, so low temps will only settle in the mid 60s to low 70s. For reference, this is over 10 degrees warmer than this morning`s lows for many locations. Then for Monday, high pressure will remain parked east of the state, with return southerly flow ongoing. A large influx of warm moist air is expected across the Mississippi Valley, on the west side of this high pressure system and upper level ridge. By afternoon, the increased moisture, heat, and instability will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across much of the Mississippi Valleys. Models also show this band of moisture rounding the ridge into Kentucky and the Ohio Valley, with nearly every model showing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region by the afternoon and early evening, before quickly dissipating as the sun goes down. There is no forcing mechanism other than a warm/moist airmass, so expect these showers/storms to quickly pop up and dissipate. In other words, there isn`t much in the way of severe potential with these storms, though can`t rule out a rogue overachiever. Much like today, highs will top out in the low 90s, but the humidity will make it feel closer to 100 degrees. Take precautions today and through the rest of the week for in the increased heat. Make sure you take frequent breaks and can cool off. Also make sure your pets and livestock have plenty of water and a cool place to shelter out of the sun. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 310 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2024 Models continue in agreement for the pattern that will affect our area during the long term period. Strong upper level high pressure will start out centered over NC. It is expected to shift north to near NYC at mid week, with a ridge axis extending southwest over the central Appalachians. It then shifts back south to the vicinity of the SC/GA coastal area and slightly weakens by the weekend. There is some degree of uncertainty by that time with regards to timing an upper trough and associated cold front crossing through the middle of the country. In the lower levels, moisture will have advected back north over our area Monday and will continue into Monday night and Tuesday, with dew points primarily in the lower 70s. Convective activity will diminish Monday evening with loss of heating, with widespread patchy to areas of fog developing in many low spots even despite some cloud cover. The upper level ridge axis will be building into our area by Tuesday and should bring enough subsidence with a mid level cap developing to help inhibit thunderstorm development. As we move further into the week, our low level flow will emanate out of high pressure to our east. Without sufficient time for the air mass to modify, and along with deep mixing, this should bring dew points down slightly into the 60s, further reducing our potential for thunderstorms. It looks like this scenario lasts through Friday. The potential for thunderstorms could make a comeback by Saturday. The GFS QPF shows spotty light amounts on that day, indicative of sparse convective precip. The ECMWF remains dry. With the upper level ridge shown to be weakening, from a synoptic viewpoint it would make sense for at least a small possibility of thunderstorms to return, and a 20% POP will be used. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2024 FR flight conditions expected through the period. While a few high clouds can`t be ruled out overnight, these should have no impact. Patchy valley fog will develop, but is not expected to impact any terminals. Winds through the period will be light, generally at or just under 5 kts, with a predominant ESE direction overnight, becoming more Srly during the day today. A warm front is expected to lift north through eastern KY during the day as well. This may increase high cloud cover to scattered or broken at times. It may also result in some isolated showers/storms developing in the far southern portion of the state during the afternoon. At this time KSME is the only TAF site that should see an isolated potential of a shower or thunderstorm. However, chances were so low, did not include in the TAF at this time. Any ongoing clouds should dissipate during the evening, giving way to another mostly clear overnight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...CMC/HAL AVIATION...JMW