033
FXUS63 KJKL 210825
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
425 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected area wide through Wednesday morning.
  High temperatures may approach or exceed record levels this
  afternoon.

- There is a potential for showers and thunderstorms at times from
  Wednesday afternoon through Monday.

- Very warm temperatures will persist through Wednesday. An
  increase in clouds and the possibility of rain will bring
  somewhat lower temperature after that, especially Thursday and
  Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2024

Warm advection increases through the short-term period as a strong
cyclone grazes the Mid-Ohio Valley through early Wednesday evening.
With the mid-level jet stream remaining west and northwest of the
forecast area, however, shower and thunderstorm activity will
remain limited.

For today, near-record high temperatures in the mid- to upper 80s
are expected as southerly flow begins to increase (yet remains
light) near the surface and southwest flow increases aloft as upper
ridging remains just to the southeast over the Southeast US. There
appears to enough instability and moisture to justify PoPs of around
10 percent for this afternoon, not quite enough to warrant mention
in the official forecasts (15 is required) for almost the entire
forecast area.

Heading into tonight, a southwesterly low-level jet will impact
the Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys, including the Bluegrass
region, just grazing our western and northwestern counties in the
CWA. Therefore, warm and dry conditions are expected yet with
increasing high clouds. Lows will generally be in the upper 50s to
mid to upper 60s, coolest in the deeper valley locations.

Lower atmospheric winds increase Wednesday morning around or just
after daybreak ahead of am impinging cold front into the Midwest,
well upstream of the forecast area. This will help to increase
moisture and instability through the day, especially toward the
Bluegrass region. Have thus kept slight chance to chance PoPs (15
to 40 PoPs) for much of northern through southwestern parts of the
forecast area beginning in the afternoon and extending into the
early evening hours. Warm temperatures continue despite the
increasing warm advection and cloud cover with mid to upper 80s
expected once again.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2024

Still seeing pretty good agreement amongst the models regarding
the flow pattern aloft in the extended. A large, broad trough of
low pressure is currently being forecast to spin its wheels over
the western third of the CONUS to begin the period. Smaller scale,
fast moving short waves are progged to migrate eastward from the
larger upper trough as it spins in place to the west. We will see
rounds of showers and storms firing across the area, as each short
wave moves through the region and interacts with the ample
moisture and instability that will be in place. The western trough
will eventually be displaced to the east later in the period, as
ridging aloft begins building into the western and southwestern
portions of the CONUS, and shifts the entire unsettled pattern
eastward with time. The highest probability for thunderstorms
will be during the afternoon and evening hour each day Thursday
through the first of the new work week. At this time it appears
that although there will be plenty of moisture and instability in
place to consistent allow for thunderstorms, the anticipate wind
shear looks like it will be too weak to support any sort of severe
weather at this time.

There is still a very low chance that portions of eastern Kentucky
could receive excessive rainfall on Friday that could lead to
isolated hydro issues around the area. With persistent widespread
clouds in place, we should see mild and generally uniform nightly
temperatures across the area, with no discernible ridge valley
differences expected. We should see daytime highs reaching the
upper 70s and lower 80s each day, or 2 to 5 degrees above normal
on average. Nightly lows should fall into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2024

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the majority of
the period. The only exception will be some MVFR or lower fog that
will occur in the river valleys between 06Z and 13z. The fog is
expected to be more confined this morning compared to the past
couple of mornings. KSME and perhaps KLOZ and KSJS have a chance
to dip into the MVFR/IFR range at least briefly between about 06Z
and 12Z, and thus included TEMPO groups for these locations.
Winds will average around 5KT or less through 14Z, before becoming
south to southwest at less than 10Kt to end the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC