Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
479 FXUS62 KKEY 251428 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1028 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1014 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A weak surface trough rooted near the northern Bahamas extends west into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Aside from this divot in low level heights, the lower tropospheric ridge extends from the western North Atlantic to a node near the Mississippi River Valley. Light southwesterly breezes prevail across the Florida Keys with the trough to our north and a lazy ridge axis to our south. The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled a deep tropical profile and TPW near 2.25". The weak lapse rates result in less than 1000 J/kg of ML instability. Thunderstorms have been mostly absent this morning within the widely scattered showers lumbering to the east. We also believe the vertical profile will support a reverse cloud line as the theta-e accumulates along the island chain. Thus, the forecast calls for 40% rain/thunder chances through the afternoon. No changes are needed with the inherited forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1014 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A weak ridge axis will extend westward from the western Atlantic across the Straits of Florida today through Thursday evening, with light to gentle southwest to west breezes prevailing over the Keys waters. Breezes may become variable at times during this period. The ridge will shift back northward late this week into the weekend, allowing gentle east to southeast breezes to resume. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1014 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Near surface winds will be southwesterly and light therefore cloudline development along the island chain is possible throughout the afternoon. For the time being, no mention of activity is present in the TAFs but if cloudline starts to develop it will be included at later issuances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 90 81 90 / 40 30 20 30 Marathon 81 90 81 90 / 40 40 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest