Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
394 FXUS62 KKEY 191447 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1047 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Currently - A deep trough is aligned along the Atlantic Coast and reaches down into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This upper level trough is gradually deepening a surface low off the New England Coast. Meanwhile, a small high is tucked in between this low and the bahamas. As a result of all of this is a lackluster wind field in the Keys. The Keys remain within a broad swath of elevated lower to mid level moisture. The overall setup means a wetter than normal pattern across our area. Currently, convective activity is concentrated on the near through deep gulf waters of the Lower Keys, driven by old mainland boundaries. The west to northwesterly flow aloft is driving their upper cloud decks across the island chain. This is resulting in overcast conditions for a good portion of the island chain. Short Term Update - Through the afternoon, the Keys will remain in a zone of weak flows. This will be due to daytime heating adding to the effect of troughing off the Atlantic coast, as well as, high pressure spilling southward into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, winds will remain light and variable in the Keys area. While the pattern remains a wet one, mesoscale factors may justify lowering pops a bit for the island chain for this afternoon. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies thanks to the activity to our north. Day time highs should top out in the upper 80s to near 90 with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Surface troughing aligned off of the northeast Atlantic Coast is resulting in a nebulous pressure field and flow across the Keys region. As a result, winds will be light and generally variable on Keys waters through the afternoon. No changes made in the morning marine update. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Shower and thunderstorm activity is moving toward the island chain of the Lower Keys currently only impacting EYW. VCSH is included at both terminals but TEMPOs will be added for EYW and the activity passes over, causing MVFR or potential IFR CIGs and VIS. Near surface winds outside of convection will be light and mostly variable. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1917, the daily record cold high temperature of 79F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest