771
FXUS62 KKEY 221444
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1044 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1044 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Radar has become more active over the last few hours here in the
Florida Keys CWA. Although showers are plentiful, thunderstorms
have been struggling to perform due to warmer temperatures deeper
into the atmosphere. 12Z KEY RAOB also reveals while our lower
level winds are southeasterly, winds aloft are in the southwestern
direction which doesn`t help the struggling cloud tops. Wind
speeds are 10 to 15 knots across the Reef outside of any
convection. Temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 80s with
today`s cloud coverage and with ample amounts of moisture and
CAPE, we could see an active radar for the rest of the day.
Confidence on exact location is hard to nail down, therefore 50%
PoPs are appropriate for the remainder of today and tonight. No
changes to the forecast are necessary at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1044 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, the
interaction between low pressure off the east coast of Florida,
high pressure centered north of Bermuda, and broad low pressure in
the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula will result in gentle to
moderate east to southeast breezes over the next few days.
Moisture pulled into our area via the low to the west will result
in periods of unsettled weather through this weekend. High
pressure building over the North Atlantic early next week will
result in light to gentle southeast to south breezes and a return
to near-normal rain and thunder chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1044 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through
the TAF period. While above normal rain chances are expected,
timing and coverage will remain difficult to forecast, so have
included just VCSH throughout the TAF period for now. Short-term
amendments will be issued as needed, based mainly on radar trends.
Outside of any shower or thunderstorm, surface winds will remain
from the east to southeast at 6 to 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...

On this day in 1990, a record rainfall of 4.30" was measured in
Marathon. This is also the wettest day ever recorded in the Marathon
area for the month of June. Rainfall records for Marathon date back
to 1950.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....BT
Data Acquisition.....BT

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