Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
439 FXUS62 KKEY 181439 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1039 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1039 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 It has been a fairly typical June day, with showers developing within the easterly flow across the Florida Keys coastal waters. A few light showers moved across the island chain earlier this morning, but have since been relegated to the southwest of the Lower Keys. Measurable rainfall has been limited due to the shallower nature of the showers, as well as the fast movement of this activity. The 12Z sounding sampled decent moisture in the lower- levels, but drier air has infiltrated from around 750 mb and up with a very dry layer from 500-300 mb. This is what has likely inhibited thunder within any of the showers. The Florida Keys remain wedged in between an expansive high off the Northeast coast and a broad low (Central American Gyre) across the Yucatan. The gradient has tightened over the past 24 hours between these two features and winds along the Reef are currently being measured between 18 and 24 knots, with gusts as high as 29 knots. Breezy conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of the day. No appreciable changes are expected to the atmospheric profile in terms of moisture or inhibition, and 30% rain chances look appropriate through this afternoon. No changes were made to the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1039 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, Strong surface high pressure centered off the New England coast working in tandem with falling pressures over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche is expected to result in moderate to fresh breezes today through mid to late week. An area of low pressure may develop mid week a few hundred miles north of the central Bahamas towards mid week and move towards the north to central Florida coastline. This may result in a slackening of breezes. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH today and into tonight. Scattered showers continue to stream across the Straits of Florida and towards the Lower Keys. VCSH will therefore persist at EYW with a lull in activity dropping MTH out for now. Periodic MVFR CIGs and reduced VIS will be possible with passing showers, but any extended periods of deteriorated conditions will be addressed with TEMPOs. Near surface winds will continue to be out of the east to southeast at near 15 knots with gusts up to near 25 knots. && .CLIMATE... In 1972, during the early morning hours, Tropical Storm Agnes passed northward through the Yucatan channel. The outer rainbands of Tropical Storm Agnes spawned at least three, to as many as six tornadoes in the Florida Keys, including a F2 tornado in Big Coppitt Key, a F2 tornado in Key West, and a F1 tornado in Conch Key. Total damage was estimated at just over $500,000 (1972 USD). About 40 people were injured in Big Coppitt Key, making the Big Coppitt Key tornado the worst in the history of the Florida Keys in terms of total number of injuries. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 82 89 81 / 40 30 40 40 Marathon 89 82 89 81 / 30 30 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest