738
FXUS62 KKEY 141927
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
327 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Radar and satellite continue to show the band of showers and
thunderstorms slowly encroaching on the Florida Keys. MRMS
rainfall estimates have shown the heaviest showers producing
anywhere between 5 to 10 inches of rainfall. Granted this is over
the Gulf waters, but the environment in front of this band is
still very wet and the combination of the slow motion of the band
and the embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms means its
possible for some locations to pick up similar amounts. The
numbers shouldn`t really be the main focus here as the main
message remains the same; once showers and thunderstorms arrive to
your front door, there is a potential for flooding. Anyone
driving when the rain arrives should use caution and remain aware
in case roads begin to overrun with water. It`s dangerous to
drive through water over roadways, and this should be avoided.

Once this activity pushes through into the overnight hours,
conditions will become quiet again for the morning hours.
Precipitation chances will trend downward tomorrow and into next
week as ridging builds in, but our location on the periphery of
the Central American Gyre (CAG) has lead us to keep PoPs around
30% through the long term.

It`s no secret that the wet season is here.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Unsettled weather will continue into the nighttime
hours and encourage moderate breezes, but breezes will trend
gentle for a short period tomorrow with shower and thunderstorm
chances starting to diminish. This will not last long, and breezes
will freshen sometime between Sunday night and Monday night.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes will continue through Wednesday
night.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
VFR conditions will continue to prevail through at least the mid to
late afternoon hours. Latest radar continues to show the band of
showers and thunderstorms over the offshore Gulf waters moving
slowly moving to the east. Latest guidance has slowed the timing
down for this band to make it to the Island Chain. Therefore, VCSH
was pushed back a few hours to account for this slow down with a wet
late afternoon/evening potentially lingering into the overnight
hours. Therefore, VCSH remains in the TAFs but pushed back with 21z
for EYW and 22z for MTH. Showers and thunderstorms will be capable
of producing MVFR or even IFR conditions for VIS with mainly MVFR
conditions for CIGs, though, IFR cannot be completely ruled out.
Also, gusty winds can be expected in and around convection. Near
surface winds will be mainly south at 5 to 12 knots.


&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1969, the daily record rainfall of 3.29" was recorded
in Key West. Precipitation records for Key West date back to 1871.

Also, the daily record rainfall of 3.30 inches was recorded in
Marathon set back on this date in 1988. Precipitation records for
Marathon date back to 1950.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  80  86  81  87 /  50  40  20  20
Marathon  79  87  81  87 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV
Data Acquisition.....MJV

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest