829
FXUS62 KKEY 221850
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
250 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Radar shows to still be busy through the afternoon throughout the
Florida Keys. Shower activity will lull this evening due to the
environment being worked over being it has to recharge and pick
back up in the overnight hours. CIMSS vorticity highlights the
low pressure off the east coast of Florida and RAOB analysis from
12z suggests a upper level trough over us with some modest height
falls showing it is sagging southward which are both factors
contributing to our current weather. Some model guidance is
suggesting 50% PoPs for tomorrow could be too low but for the time
being going to keep with current forecast, and will continue to
evaluate if an increase is needed in later updates.

As the work week begins, an Atlantic high will build back in over
the Keys and the CAG will move west allowing for our PoPs and
temperatures to return to around normal. Also, expected with this
high is the winds slackening, which with the southeast direction
could create some cloudlines across the island chain.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, the interaction
between low pressure off the east coast of Florida, high pressure
centered north of Bermuda, and broad low pressure in the vicinity
of the Yucatan Peninsula will result in gentle to moderate east
to southeast breezes becoming gentle late this evening. Moisture
pulled into our area via the low to the west will result in
periods of unsettled weather for the rest of the weekend. High
pressure building over the North Atlantic early next week will
result in light to gentle southeast to south breezes and a return
to near- normal rain and thunder chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. With that said, bouts of scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to pivot through the terminals, resulting in brief sub
VFR visibilities and ceilings from heavy downpours. Coverage should
become more spotty after 21z, when general mention of VCSH is
included in the TAFs for now. Short-term amendments will be issued
as needed. Outside of any shower or thunderstorm, surface winds will
remain from the east to southeast at 6 to 10 knots.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....BT
Data Acquisition.....BT

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