Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
525 FXUS62 KKEY 251854 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 254 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Water vapor imagery and CIMSS products suggest mean layer ridging centered near Texas reaches east to near the Keys. We note a few TUTT-like cells meandering near the Bahamas, the Yucatan Channel, and the Bay of Campeche. Based on this morning`s KKEY RAOB, the reverse cloud line should be rumbling, but it is not. We assume there must be subsidence limiting free convection, because MIMIC TPW suggests we remain juiced. The recent rains have tempered our nearshore SSTs, and as a result, afternoon highs are 90 or less. .FORECAST... Forecast reasoning for the next week has not changed appreciably with this cycle. The low-level ridge axis will be south of our latitude tonight through Thursday night. This will lend to southwesterly steering and forecast soundings indicate low-level moisture will remain juicy through 700 mb. Near to above normal rain/thunder chances remain in the forecast through this time frame. Mid to upper level depictions suggest a weak trough axis will dig down into Florida and the southeastern Gulf Wednesday night through Thursday night. We do not see much change to the sensible weather based on this feature, except for maybe a little less subsidence. The low-level ridge axis will lift northward into Florida and the southeastern US Friday through Saturday. The developing east- southeasterlies will bathe the Keys in seasonal humidity and episodes of moisture convergence, especially during the nocturnal episodes of confluence across the Straits. We continue to advertise 40% chances through the extended. Throughout the next seven days, light to gentle breezes through the short term may sneak into the moderate range Saturday through Tuesday as a tropical wave slides west into the Yucatan or Central America. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A weak ridge axis will extend westward from the western Atlantic across the Straits of Florida today through Thursday evening, with light to gentle southwest to west breezes prevailing over the Keys waters. Breezes may become variable at times during this period. The ridge will shift back northward late this week into the weekend, allowing gentle east to southeast breezes to resume. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Near surface winds will be southwesterly and light. Cloudlines have developed over the Middle and Lower Keys and VCSH is included for both terminals for the time being. TEMPOs will be included if showers will directly impact, and VCSH will be removed from TAFs around sundown when cloudlines break apart. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 90 81 90 / 20 30 20 30 Marathon 81 90 81 91 / 30 40 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest