Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
738 FXUS62 KKEY 141927 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 327 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Radar and satellite continue to show the band of showers and thunderstorms slowly encroaching on the Florida Keys. MRMS rainfall estimates have shown the heaviest showers producing anywhere between 5 to 10 inches of rainfall. Granted this is over the Gulf waters, but the environment in front of this band is still very wet and the combination of the slow motion of the band and the embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms means its possible for some locations to pick up similar amounts. The numbers shouldn`t really be the main focus here as the main message remains the same; once showers and thunderstorms arrive to your front door, there is a potential for flooding. Anyone driving when the rain arrives should use caution and remain aware in case roads begin to overrun with water. It`s dangerous to drive through water over roadways, and this should be avoided. Once this activity pushes through into the overnight hours, conditions will become quiet again for the morning hours. Precipitation chances will trend downward tomorrow and into next week as ridging builds in, but our location on the periphery of the Central American Gyre (CAG) has lead us to keep PoPs around 30% through the long term. It`s no secret that the wet season is here. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Unsettled weather will continue into the nighttime hours and encourage moderate breezes, but breezes will trend gentle for a short period tomorrow with shower and thunderstorm chances starting to diminish. This will not last long, and breezes will freshen sometime between Sunday night and Monday night. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes will continue through Wednesday night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions will continue to prevail through at least the mid to late afternoon hours. Latest radar continues to show the band of showers and thunderstorms over the offshore Gulf waters moving slowly moving to the east. Latest guidance has slowed the timing down for this band to make it to the Island Chain. Therefore, VCSH was pushed back a few hours to account for this slow down with a wet late afternoon/evening potentially lingering into the overnight hours. Therefore, VCSH remains in the TAFs but pushed back with 21z for EYW and 22z for MTH. Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing MVFR or even IFR conditions for VIS with mainly MVFR conditions for CIGs, though, IFR cannot be completely ruled out. Also, gusty winds can be expected in and around convection. Near surface winds will be mainly south at 5 to 12 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1969, the daily record rainfall of 3.29" was recorded in Key West. Precipitation records for Key West date back to 1871. Also, the daily record rainfall of 3.30 inches was recorded in Marathon set back on this date in 1988. Precipitation records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 86 81 87 / 50 40 20 20 Marathon 79 87 81 87 / 50 40 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest