![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
332 FXUS62 KKEY 191436 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1036 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled a very moist profile up to around the 700 mb isobaric surface, capped by a weak isothermal layer between 700-650 mb. KBYX radar has been pretty active this morning in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys, with much drier conditions being observed in the adjacent Upper Keys. The focus of convection can largely be attributed to a zone of confluence, with available marine- and land-based surface observations indicating moderate to fresh easterly flow in the eastern zones, with a more southeasterly component further to the west. Due to the scattered nature of the shower activity, rainfall amounts have ranged pretty substantially, even across individual islands. As an example, the office here on White Street in Key West has measured around 0.60" since midnight, whereas nearby Key West International Airport has only measured 0.21". Outside of any passing showers, skies are partly cloudy across the CWA, with temperatures generally in the lower to mid 80s. For the rest of today, winds should gradually back to the east across the western zones. With overall convectively-driven stabilization and a more uniform wind direction, showers should gradually wane. However, this may take several hours into the early afternoon to take place. Elected to split the Florida Keys zones for higher measurable rain chances and slightly lower high temperatures in the Lower and Middle Keys. No other changes proposed at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1035 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones, including the Florida Bay, Bayside and Gulfside, southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Hawk Channel, and the Straits of Florida. Occasional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys, will produce heavy downpours reducing visibility and wind gusts generally 25 to 30 knots. From synopsis, strong surface high pressure centered off the New England coast working in tandem with falling pressures over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche will result in moderate to fresh breezes this afternoon through late week. A weak area of low pressure will begin to develop later this afternoon a few hundred miles north of the central Bahamas and move towards the Southeast U.S. coastline. This will lead to slackening east to southeast breezes for Friday through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 TEMPO for passing showers is included at both terminals through 15z. Shower activity should start to decrease going into the afternoon and near surface winds will continue to be east to southeast near 15 knots with gusts of near 25 knots. && .CLIMATE... June 19th, on this day in 1999, Marathon`s high temperature only reached 82 degrees and the rain gauge recorded 1.40 inches of rainfall, both records for the date. Temperature and rainfall records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 82 89 81 / 50 40 50 40 Marathon 89 82 89 82 / 50 40 50 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest