Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
796 FXUS62 KKEY 211909 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 309 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Overall conditions are still quiet across the forecast area except for a couple of showers that have tracked down the island chain this afternoon. The light northeasterly flow was able to produce a cloud line that was visible on satellite imagery, but an old outflow boundary colliding with the cloud line is causing it to diminish. Communities in the Lower Keys where this cloud line brought rain should see dry conditions return again for the rest of the evening. As mentioned earlier today, there isn`t much to speak of with respect to the synoptic pattern. Any activity over the next couple of days will be driven by the mesoscale, so we will continue to take it day by day. There is a lot of attention on the second half of next week, but to be honest there is still not much confidence as to how things play out. A Central American Gyre (CAG) is expected to develop somewhere over the southwestern Caribbean. This CAG may aid in encouraging the development of some tropical wave, but how this wave evolves and where it goes is still very much in question. We will continue to message freshening breezes, especially over the western portion of our waters from Tuesday and Wednesday onward. Regardless of the track of the wave, the second half of next continues to look like it will be a breezier and wetter period than what we have seen as of late, so it is important to stay tuned to future forecast updates. && .MARINE... Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Keys, and a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Middle and Lower Keys, as above normal tides continue. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges, especially during the hours around high tide. From synopsis, as a trough continues to slide eastward across the western North Atlantic through the rest of the weekend and into early next week, high pressure building along the Eastern Seaboard will bring gradually increasing easterly breezes to the Keys coastal waters beginning on Monday. Heading into the middle of next week, the forecast will depend on the potential development and movement of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. At this time, we expect freshening east to southeast breezes, with the strongest winds over western sections of the Keys waters. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. A cloud line has developed over the Middle and Lower Keys causing brief TEMPOs being required mainly at EYW and VCSH prevailing at both terminals. The cloud line is beginning to break up and shower activity should dull down once that dissipates this evening. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1948, a Hurricane intensified as it moved north northeast off of Cuba, crossing Boca Chica Key as category 3 storm. At Boca Chica the peak wind was 122 mph before the anemometer blew away, with an estimated peak wind of 140 mph. In Key West the minimum pressure was measured at 28.45" and a daily-record 4.53" of rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 90 81 90 / 20 20 30 30 Marathon 81 89 81 90 / 20 20 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest