Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
017 FXUS62 KKEY 280825 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 425 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 While a well-developed outflow boundary moved across the Florida Straits yesterday evening, rainfall was not measured at Marathon or Key West. Since then, KBYX has detected few if any showers on radar though the early morning hours. Broad ridging in the low to mid levels lingers across the Florida Keys waters. Winds at the reef are being measured as southerlies near 10 knots this morning, indicating another warm and muggy summer day. Northward motion of the low level ridge will allow winds to build back to near 10 knots across the Florida Keys by Saturday, and a weak vorticity max will cause the steering flow to back from southeasterly on Saturday to northeasterly on Sunday night. Increased PoPs on Sunday to reflect showers moving into Florida Keys waters from the peninsula, but per summer patterns any convection will be mesoscale in nature and even hi-res models struggle to resolve convection over the waters - as evidenced by the 25 to 30 knot boundary layer observed last night. PoPs are capped at 50 percent for now, but may be increased if the weather pattern shifts to favor rainfall. The period of showers will be short- lived, as a weak plume of the Saharan Air Layer will near the Keys by mid- week. Other forecast challenges pertain to the movement and development of AL95, located over the Central Atlantic as of 0400 AM EDT, and its impact on the wind flow over Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. Ensemble forecasts show the disturbance passing south of Jamaica by Independence Day, but tropical storms exert an influence on the synoptic-scale flow that is difficult to forecast. We will be watching AL95 through the week, and please check the official forecasts for any updates. && .MARINE... Issued at 408 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. A low level ridge axis located across the Florida Keys will continue to slowly lift north today through Saturday. Light to gentle easterly breezes will increase to gentle to moderate breezes by Saturday, and veer to east to southeasterly through Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 408 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period, with only a slight chance of showers forecast through tomorrow morning. Surface winds will be from the southeast to south at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1909, the daily record rainfall of 3.87" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 84 91 83 / 20 20 30 40 Marathon 91 83 90 82 / 20 20 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....NB Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest