243
FXUS62 KKEY 291854
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
254 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Temperatures across the Keys climbed to 90 to 95 degrees this
afternoon accompanied by dewpoints in the upper 70s. We issued an
early afternoon Heat Advisory for the entire island chain due to
observed heat indices up to 112. Skies are sunny and the KBYX
radar is echo free near the island chain, although there is a
an easterly breeze taking some of the edge off the heat. Shower
and thunderstorm activity is relegated to the Straits of Florida
and South Florida.

.FORECAST...
The National Hurricane Center is watching three areas across the
basin: a tropical wave near the Yucatan Peninsula, Tropical Storm
Beryl around 800 miles east of the Leeward Islands, and an area
of low pressure southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The first two
will have indirect impacts on our weather over the next week. For
the disturbance near the Yucatan, east to southeast breezes will
be enhanced tonight, especially for the western half of our CWA
as the system tries to organize over the Bay of Campeche. Breezes
will diminish Sunday and Sunday night as the system moves west
into Mexico. Meanwhile, an area of unsettled weather currently to
the east of Florida will carve to the southwest through South
Florida. We highlight 50% rain/thunder chances Sunday through
Monday as weak, yet deep, troughiness works its way through South
Florida and the Keys. This window of enhanced chances may need to
be extended into Monday night as confluent southeasterlies take
hold on the back side of the troughiness.

In the Tuesday through Friday time frame, the forecast track of
Beryl describes a weakening system steadily marching west-
northwest through the Caribbean. The mountains of Jamaica and
Hispaniola, destructive wind shear at multiple levels, and a broad
mean layer ridge centered near the Mississippi River Valley will
be significant impediments to the future of Beryl as the system
moves into the Western Caribbean. Steering mechanisms as Beryl
enters the Western Caribbean are trending towards a stronger ridge
to block the northward progress. Nevertheless, the northern
periphery of Beryl will scrape through Cuba and the Straits of
Florida. Thundery squalls are possible Wednesday night through
Thursday night as Beryl makes its closest approach to the Keys. In
addition, Small Craft Advisories may be required for a portions
of the Florida Keys.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024
A broad area of low pressure near the Bay of Campeche will move
westward into Central America tonight and Sunday. Breezes across
the Keys will relax somewhat as the system presses west. Breezes
will freshen as Beryl, soon to be a hurricane, marches steadily
west northwest through the Caribbean Sea Tuesday through Thursday.
Please review the Tropical Cyclone Advisories for additional
information on the track and future evolution of Beryl.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period for
both EYW and MTH terminals. Latest guidance suggests any showers or
thunderstorms holding off until around daybreak Sunday morning.
Therefore, with continued uncertainty in timing and placement of any
activity, we have decided to continue to leave VCSH out of the TAFs
for now. Other than that, expect easterly winds to continue with
some gusts (~20 kts) through the early evening hours before
decreasing overnight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 2023, a daily record high temperature of 94F was
measured in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to
1873.

$$

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  89  81  89 /  30  50  50  50
Marathon  82  89  81  89 /  30  50  50  50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV
Data Acquisition.....MJV

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