178
FXUS63 KLBF 010538
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1238 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather potential is of concern Monday afternoon and
  evening.

- Additional chances for scattered thunderstorms will come
  Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- Drier, cooler and more stable weather is expected Thursday and
  Friday. Moderating temperatures, back to normal for this time
  of year, for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Surface high pressure is located across the Mississippi Valley
region this afternoon. Return low-level southeast flow has developed
across Nebraska on the backside of the high. Low-level moisture
(surface dew points) are gradually rising as the southeast flow
originates from a tropical airmass (dew points 75-80F) across OK,
AR, LA and eastern TX. The best low-level moisture is being
transported through western KS into eastern CO and the Nebraska
Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the Laramie
Range within the increasingly moist upslope flow this afternoon.
Shear in this area is strong with modest instability, and a few
supercells will likely result. These will attempt to move eastward
into the Nebraska Panhandle late this afternoon and evening but will
likely struggle. Low-level lapse rates are poor as you move into
this area with weak CAPE. Shear is strong but the previous mentioned
factors will limit storm intensity and coverage as it moves
eastward. WAA in the mid-levels then increases after dark along with
an increasing southerly low-level jet. The nose of the jet is
pointed into central and eastern Nebraska. Expecting the initiation
of elevated convection to occur across central Nebraska after
midnight...becoming more widespread and organized as it tracks into
eastern Nebraska by sunrise Monday morning.

Attention then turns to the severe potential Monday afternoon and
evening. Southwest flow aloft will increase as a shortwave
embedded within the flow approaches. At the surface, low
pressure will deepen across northeast Colorado. A warm front
will lift northward and be located somewhere just south of I-80
by Monday afternoon. Low-level moisture will pool north of the
boundary with surface dew points rising into the lower 70s. This
moisture will combine with daytime heating and steep mid-level
lapse rates...creating potential extreme instability. There will
be a capping inversion in place, but forcing from the
approaching shortwave should help to overcome the cap with
convection developing by around 4 PM CDT. The storm mode will be
supercells, with the area near and just north of the warm front
looking quite favorable for tornado development. The exact
location of the warm front will have to be monitored carefully.
Storms will likely grow upscale into more of a line/QLCS type
system as the activity tracks toward eastern Nebraska Monday
evening.

Tuesday looks much quieter as a shortwave tracks across the
northern plains and drives high pressure southward into the
region. Return southerly low-level flow develops again
Wednesday. As low-level moisture returns to the area some
isolated/scattered late afternoon convection could develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Upper level low pressure will move slowly move across southern
Canada Thursday into the weekend. A cold front will slide
southeast through the area Thursday with a drier airmass moving
into the area Friday into the weekend. Only slight chances for
precipitation are expected during this time along with cooler
temperatures. In fact, Thursday and Friday highs only reach the
70s across northern Nebraska. Highs do moderate some for the
weekend, ranging from the 80s across northern Nebraska to the
lower 90s across southwest Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

As a line of showers and thunderstorms moves across western
Nebraska, so will a widespread area of stratus. The stratus will be
the cause of MVFR to IFR ceilings through the afternoon hours. As
showers appear to be weakening, will omit from TAFs for time being,
but may need amend if rain showers hold together. Models have backed
off on the low level jet, so have removed LLWS as well. There will
likely be another round of showers and thunderstorms later this
afternoon into the evening, however confidence in location is still
low.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Richie