643
FXUS63 KLBF 221938
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
238 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost potential tonight as high pressure settles across the
  region and clouds decrease.

- Fall like conditions for most of the upcoming week. Continued
  mostly dry, with a bit below temperatures to start the week
  warming to near or slightly above by the end of the week.

- Fire weather concerns don`t appear to be a major issue for
  the coming week as both humidity and wind look to remain
  mostly in check.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024


Upper level low pressure is in the process of filling/weakening
across southwest Nebraska into northwest Kansas this afternoon. The
system will move east of the area tonight with skies rapidly
clearing. Winds will be light as an axis of surface high pressure
extends from central Nebraska to the Texas Panhandle. A dry airmass
is in place, with dew points this afternoon ranging from the mid 30s
to lower 40s. As skies clear tonight the concern will turn to frost.
Guidance has trended a little warmer that past couple of runs, and
have to get down to around the 10th %tile to see much in the way of
frost. It appears the favored areas for patchy front tonight will be
mostly in the Platte River Valley, where lows in the mid 30s are
expected. Out of the valley there looks to be just enough winds to
generally hold lows in the upper 30s. Will not issue a frost
advisory due to the limited areal coverage of the patchy frost. Will
continue however to mention in the forecast for affected areas.

The surface high pressure ridge axis will shift eastward into
Iowa/eastern Kansas on Monday. Winds will shift to the south on the
backside of the high. Near full sunshine is expected until afternoon
when clouds will begin to increase across northwest Nebraska. This
will be ahead of a strong shortwave that will be diving from Canada
into the northern plains. There is some decent mid-level forcing
associated with this system tomorrow night, but moisture is very
limited. Still may manage to squeeze out a few isolated showers but
little to no QPF is expected from the activity. A surface low will
track across the Dakotas into Minnesota Monday night with a cold
front crossing the area. Tuesday will be a bit breezy behind the
front, but bufkit sounding profiles generally limit gusts to around
20 mph or so. CAA behind the front will be limited with the airmass
Pacific in nature with highs in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A rather complex upper level pattern looks to materialize Wednesday
through into next weekend. The Monday night/Tuesday northern plains
upper level system dives southward through the Mississippi Valley
region Wednesday and stalls across Arkansas Thursday. Meanwhile what
looks to be a potential hurricane moves ashore the northeast Gulf
late in the week and in pulled northward and eventually gets
absorbed into the aforementioned upper level low next weekend.
Meanwhile, upper level ridging will persist west of these features
across the Rockies into the western plains. This will continue the
dry conditions and temperatures warming to near or slightly above
average for the end of the week and next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Skies will gradually clear this evening at the KLBF and KVTN
terminals. In the meantime, expect broken ceilings around 15000
FT AGL at the KLBF terminal and 20000 FT AGL at the KVTN
terminal through mid evening. Winds will be light and variable
at under 10 KTS this afternoon into Monday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler