Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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776 FXUS63 KLBF 101127 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 627 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper trough and weak cool front will support thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening. The main area the of concern will be west of Springview through Imperial, with the primary threats isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. - An upper ridge building across the Desert Southwest Wednesday and Thursday will support very warm temperatures. Highs in the upper 90s are forecast across southwest Nebraska. - An upper trough in the southwestern U.S. will approach and cross the region Friday and Saturday. This will bring the potential for strong thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Surface low pressure will deepen today across southeast Wyoming as surface high pressure extends over the Upper Mississippi Valley. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient across western Nebraska with south winds of 15 to 30 mph. A Pacific front will advance into western South Dakota and the western panhandle late this afternoon as an upper trough advances into the Northern Plains. Ahead of the front, highs will reach the lower 80s and MUCAPEs from 1000-1500 J/kg will reside across the western Sandhills near and west of Highway 61. Deep layer shear to range from 25 to 30 kts. Fairly strong frontal forcing will be present late this afternoon and early evening across the western Sandhills, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The latest convective allowing models (CAMs) show development across the northwest Sandhills after 21Z with development into the central Sandhills through mid evening. Storm coverage will be much more limited across southwest Nebraska into eastern portions of north central Nebraska, where frontal forcing will weaken mid evening and overnight. Latest SPC Day 1 outlook shows a Marginal Risk for areas west of Springview through Imperial, with a Slight Risk over the northwest Sandhills west of Merriman through Lisco. Isolated large hail and damaging winds are possible with the strongest storms. Rainfall amounts should be limited to a tenth to a quarter inch across the northwestern half of the forecast area, though local amounts could exceed a half inch this evening. Tuesday, the weak upper trough will move into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Surface winds across western Nebraska will be light north to northeast at only 5 to 10 mph. Skies will be sunny with high in the mid 80s, except upper 80s far southwest. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Upper ridging will build across the Desert Southwest Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring very warm temperatures from 90 to 98 Wednesday and 85 to 98 Thursday. NBM 75th percentile supports highs near 100 Wednesday and 99 to 103 Thursday across southwest Nebraska. The capping inversion may be weak enough by late Wednesday afternoon into the evening for a few strong thunderstorms to develop east of Highway 83. MUCAPEs should exceed 3000 J/kg with deep layer shear of 35 to 45 kts. Development is very conditional and confidence remains low on development. Thunderstorms could also develop Thursday afternoon and evening as a weak front drops southward during the day. This would favor develop across the panhandle, southwest and central Nebraska. The potential for severe weather remains uncertain at this time. An upper trough across the southwestern U.S. will approach the area on Friday and cross the region Saturday. This will bring the potential for strong thunderstorms and at least locally heavy rainfall both days. PWATs will reach near 1.25 inches or higher. Details on timing and the amount of severe weather remains uncertain at this time. Highs will range in the 80s Friday and Saturday, warming slightly to the 80s to low 90s Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska today. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the Panhandle this afternoon then spread eastward across the area this evening. Otherwise, south winds will become gusty by late this morning. Winds will be erratic and gusty in and near any thunderstorm activity this evening. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Taylor