538
FXUS64 KLCH 162049
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
349 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Little change is expected day to day for much of the short term
forecast. A weak boundary draped in a west-to-east fashion along
I-10 is in place today and will remain in place Tuesday before
washing out on Wednesday. Along this boundary, expect isolated
to widely scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms. Best
chances for convection will take place across Lower Acadiana (30
to 35 % PoPs) where there is pooling of low level moisture.

Northwest flow will develop overhead Wednesday, helping to wash
out this boundary and bring most rain chances to an end. Forecast
soundings also indicate the more efficient mixing down of dry air
to the surface, helping to further limit any surface convection.

Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to around 90/91F this
afternoon, which is a degree or two higher than expected. Thus,
with an expectation of similar conditions tomorrow, daytime high
temperatures were blended with the 12z GFS to bump them up
slightly from the NBM.
Highs will trend upwards slightly on Wednesday with the arrival
of northwest flow and slightly drier air. Daytime temps should top
out in the low 90s, but with lower moisture, it should at least
be a dry heat. There are no concerns of hitting Heat Advisory
criteria this week.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The long range portion of the forecast essential gets dominated by a
mid/upper-level ridge building over the region from TX/Old Mexico,
gradually settling directly overhead. Meanwhile, sfc ridging
initially centered over the lower MS Valley will gradually shift
ewd, but remain the dominant weather maker (or non-maker, in this
case) at the sfc. The result will be dry and warm conditions with
highs generally in the lower 90s (a cat or two above normal for late
September) and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s (near normal). Highs
do cool a degree or two by the end of the forecast period as the
ridge begins breaking down, with additional cloud cover helping
temper temps a bit).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Very isolated showers and weak thunderstorms are developing within
Lower Acadiana, along a stationary boundary lingering draped
across the I-10 corridor. Across all terminals, winds are fairly
light and variable around this boundary, and ceilings are
generally within upper MVFR to lower VFR bounds. Expect an
increase in convective activity across the forecast area this
afternoon, however convection should still remain fairly isolated
to widely scattered in nature. Only LCH, LFT and ARA carry
vicinity wording as these are the areas with highest chances to
see activity.

Convection should diminish with sundown, along with improving
ceilings and calming winds. This same boundary will linger
overhead again Tuesday, bringing about another round of convection
near Lower Acadiana in the early morning.

Some sites saw scattered instances of fog this morning,
particularly at AEX where nearby burning may have left smoke in
the air. As skies clear overnight, expect more ground fog to
develop. This could be more widespread in nature than this
morning, but dense fog is not expected.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Winds and seas will be light and low, respectively, this week
under a weak pressure gradient over coastal waters. Some isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the coastline this
afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon as convection fires along a
weak boundary found just inland. Ridging builds in aloft
Wednesday, ending rain chances.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  85  69  89 /  10  30   0  10
LCH  73  87  73  89 /  10  30   0  10
LFT  73  88  74  90 /  20  40   0  20
BPT  73  90  75  91 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11