168
FXUS64 KLCH 220827
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
327 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A ridge aloft is centered along the Texas coast this morning. The
ridge stretches from northern Mexico and across the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Also, a short wave is pushing into the plains.
This disturbance is causing storms in the TX Panhandle and OK. At
the surface a ridge is centered over the southeast states while a
low is moving northeast across the central plains. An associated
front is stretched into North TX.

Today the ridge aloft and at the surface will slowly shift east.
At the surface, the pressure gradient between the ridge and the
plains low will allow for a modest increase in the south flow
locally. The ridge overhead will suppress convection again today,
however a few nocturnal showers will be possible this morning
along the coast followed by an isolated shower or two along the
sea breeze in the afternoon. Temperatures will still be above
climo norms today.

A gradual and modest increase in rain chances will begin Monday
and last into the extended as the upper ridge gets eroded from
the northwest. Average accumulations are anticipated to be light.
High temperatures will also decrease slightly with the increase
in cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Moving forward to Wednesday, a positively tilted trof extends a cold
front SW from the parent low pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes
to the TX / LA Gulf Coast. Locally, this pattern translates to
increased moisture convergence along SWLA and SETX. That said,
forecast QPF remains low as projected instability and low level
dynamics do not show signals for significant rainfall at this time.
Isolated to scattered shower / storms remain in the forecast leading
into Thursday with highs trending toward the lower 80s under a
northerly wind regime.

Meanwhile, as the sfc front stalls along the coast, the upper level
region of enhanced divergence shifts into the northwest Gulf as it
interacts with a tropical disturbance that is forecast to lift north
over the central Gulf. Until a low-level center of circulation
appears within the feature, model analysis will continue to carry a
large spread of uncertainty on intensity and movement. The
disturbance is currently being monitored by the National Hurricane
Center and more reliable guidance will be worked into the forecast
regarding the feature as confidence of formation increases. However,
at this time, the local pattern suggests a deepening low pressure
across the central Gulf into the Mississippi Valley through Friday
morning. Despite lowered instability, chances of shower / storms
remain in the forecast as the feature shifts inland over the SECONUS
through Friday night. Do note, as the feature evolves, regardless of
development, there will likely be resulting adjustments to the PoPs.
For now, guidance from WPC leaves our area with no risk for
excessive rainfall through majority of the work week while still
hosting milder conditions under northerly breezes leading into the
upcoming weekend.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Not much change in the thinking as far as the aviation forecast
goes. High pressure at the surface and aloft will prevail during
the period. Mainly light winds and clear skies through the night.
Some patchy fog will be possible mainly between 22/09z-13z and
will have a tempo group with MVFR visibility to cover that. On
Sunday, no significant shower activity is expected with mainly
south winds at less than 10 knots and VFR conditions.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

High pressure will gradually shift east while low pressure moves
across the plains today into early week. This will modestly
increase the onshore flow and allow for a slight increase in rain
chances.

NHC is still monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the
Caribbean. Currently the hurricane center is giving the area a
70# chance of development. This disturbance is anticipated to lift
north through the gulf late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  70  90  70 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  92  73  91  74 /  10   0  10   0
LFT  92  74  92  74 /  10   0  10   0
BPT  92  74  92  74 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07