847
FXUS64 KLCH 200924
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
424 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)

Wx map shows Tropical Storm Alberto in the Southwestern Gulf of
Mexico, and expected to make landfall on the Mexican coast this
morning. While the circulation has contracted enough to drop the
tropical storm warnings for the U.S. locations, still elevated
winds across the Northern Gulf of Mexico will continue this
morning due to the tight pressure gradient continuing between
Alberto and the large surface high across the East Coast. With
this continued large eastward fetch across the Northern Gulf of
Mexico, tides will remain high this morning and afternoon. A
Coastal Flood Warning continues through 4 PM for Cameron Parish
and Lower Jefferson County for water levels between 2.0 and 2.5
feet MHHW, and Southern Calcasieu Parish & Southern Orange County
for water levels between 1.5 and 2.0 feet MHHW. A Coastal Flood
Advisory continues through 4 PM for Lower Vermilion, Lower
Iberia, and Lower St. Mary parishes for water levels 1.5 and 2.0
feet MHHW.

Otherwise, radar shows only intermittent showers across the coastal
waters this morning. Expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
this afternoon aided by lingering moisture and afternoon heating.
Afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s expected. The showers
expected to diminish by sunset, with lows Friday morning mainly in
the lower 70s.

For Friday and Saturday, the large mid to upper level ridge of
high pressure will remain over the Gulf states. Lingering
moisture across the Gulf expected to keep scattered shower and
thunderstorms along and south of I-10, with isolated further
north, for Friday afternoon. Highs in the lower to mid 90s. For
Saturday, chances of showers and thunderstorms diminish further as
the ridge strengthens, with highs in the mid to upper 90s north of
I-10, lower to mid 90s elsewhere. Maximum heat index values
expected in the 100-105 range.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)

Broad upper ridging extending from southern California to the
eastern Gulf will dominate the synoptic pattern through the
beginning of the long term period. This will result in mostly sunny
skies and above average temps from the end of the weekend into the
early work week. Although ridging will be overhead, we will likely
still see isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection each
afternoon during peak heating hours, with better rain chances (~40%)
expected across Acadiana where the influence of the ridge will be
weaker. Elsewhere, 20-30 POPs are on tap both Sun and Mon afternoon.
Temperature wise, highs will top out in the mid to upper 90s each
day, while lows will fall into he mid to upper 70s.

Moving into Tuesday and beyond the upper ridge begins to retreat
westward with the forecast area becoming situated on its far eastern
edge by late Wednesday. This will open the door for higher rain
chances areawide each afternoon, with NBM painting a gradual
increase in POPs each day through this period. Still, most of this
convection should be diurnally driven in nature and will come to an
end with sunset each day. Better rain chances will have the added
benefit of bringing afternoon highs down a bit through the mid week,
with highs in the low to mid 90s expected, while overnight lows
continue to fall into the mid to upper 70s.

In addition, we will need to keep an eye on the tropics as we head
into the long range, as NHC has outlined an area of interest over
the Bay of Campeche in the 7 Day Outlook with a 50% chance of
development. Fortunately, the upper ridge overhead looks like it`ll
keep whatever becomes of this system well to our south (similarly to
Alberto) however, we could see some elevated moisture making its way
north to the Gulf Coast states at some point which would likely be
the extent of any impacts.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)

East winds picking up near 12-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts at
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA by 15z through the afternoon, diminishing to 5-8
kts after 00z. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA expected between 20-24z. For
AEX, slightly lower winds expected, with no mention of TSRA. VFR
expected to prevail through the period.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical Storm Alberto in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico will
continue to move westward toward the Mexican coast this morning.
Strong easterly winds will persist this morning, diminishing by
this evening through the overnight hours. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms could bring wind gusts to near 34 knots
across the outer coastal waters this morning. Winds will gradually
become more southeast to south by late in the weekend into early
next week.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  70  93  71 /  20   0  10   0
LCH  91  73  91  74 /  50  30  40  10
LFT  91  74  93  73 /  50  10  40  10
BPT  91  75  92  75 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ073-
     074-241.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LAZ252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ615-
     616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-452-
     455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...08