Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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235 FXUS64 KLCH 151129 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 629 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A weak surface boundary, basically a dew point delineation axis from dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s, is located from the lakes area of upper southeast Texas to the middle Atchafalaya Basin. With northwest flow aloft, a disturbance is working with higher moisture of 2 inch PWAT along the boundary and theta-e axis to produce clusters of showers and a few storms along it moving to the southeast. This boundary will continue to sink to the south and reach the coast by the end of the day, initial shower activity decreasing ahead of it by mid morning, then redeveloping later in the afternoon with daytime heating and the arrival of the next disturbance. Surface boundary will stall along the coast for Monday into Tuesday. Meanwhile, a surface low, with some tropical or sub- tropical potential will head toward the South and North Carolina coast. Developing northeast flow over the southeast US will help bring a remnant mid level low back to the southwest and into the region before it is absorbed into the Carolina system to produce a broad trough just east of the forecast area. The combination of the old surface boundary and upper level trough, will bring a continuation of shower or storm chances, mainly during the afternoon during the early part of the week. The best chance will be over eastern portions of the forecast area, and on Monday. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Upper level ridging will begin to build into the forecast area on Wednesday as the broad Mid-Atlantic trough moves northward into the northeast US. The ridge will strengthen and hold over the immediate area through the end of the week with very little if any chance for rain and above normal temperatures. Rua && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A surface boundary is sliding down to the coast and will stall today. Mainly light north winds can be expected at all terminals as the boundary reaches the coast. Mainly VFR conditions are also expected. Late this afternoon and early evening, there is the potential for a few showers or storms to develop as an upper level disturbance interacts with the surface boundary and decent moist along the boundary. Therefore, will mention VCSH for KBPT/KLCH/KARA/KLFT between 15/18z to 16/03z. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Mainly light and variable winds over the coastal waters this early morning. A weak surface boundary will move into the coastal waters later today, then stall along or just offshore through Tuesday. This will bring a period of light offshore flow to go along with low seas. There will be a chance for a few showers or storms along this boundary, mainly during the late morning through early evening for the near shore waters, then late at night into the early morning for the offshore waters. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 87 68 85 68 / 10 10 30 0 LCH 87 72 88 71 / 30 10 20 0 LFT 88 72 88 73 / 20 10 40 0 BPT 92 73 92 73 / 30 20 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07