Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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064 FXUS64 KLCH 160312 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1012 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Wx map shows very weak pressure gradient over the region, resulting in calm wind inland, and light and variable across the coastal waters. Radar showing a band of showers and occasional thunderstorm across Southeast Texas across Hardin, Jefferson and Orange counties. This will likely continue for the next hour or so before dissipating this evening/early Monday morning. Adjusted the nearterm chances of showers and thunderstorms upward for this, despite the nearterm model guidance showing it should have dissipated by now. Further proof of the continued need for human meteorologist intervention of these high resolution models. Anyrate, the remainder of the forecast should be on track, with no further updates needed at this time. 08/DML && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The weak remnants associated with Francine continues to drift around LA, AR, MS, AL, and the FL panhandle this afternoon with a weak boundary extending from this broad low into the local area. Diurnal heating, weak convergence from the surface boundary, and a weakness aloft will continue to allow convection to develop into the afternoon. A ridge axis is also centered over TX which will suppress convection farther west keeping most showers and storms over LA. Extra convergence caused by the sea breeze will also concentrate convection along the coastal areas to I-10 through early evening. Monday, the moisture and weak, broad trough will drift southwest due to being driven by a developing Carolina coastal system. This will keep pops in the forecast for another day. Convection will be highest across the Atchafalaya where moisture will be deeper. Showers can not be ruled out in SE TX, but the minimal chance will be highest along the coast. By Tuesday and Wednesday the remnants of Francine are expected to have filled while the ridge from Texas builds in. Decreasing rain chances are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Upper level ridging will gradually build overhead from the west on Wednesday, remaining over the Ark-La-Tex through the at least Saturday. At the same time, weak surface high pressure is expected to meander around the northern Gulf Coast through the second half of the week. This will bring about a benign and dry pattern that will last through the end of the long term period. Little to no precip, mostly sunny skies, and near or slightly above normal temps can be expected each day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s each day, while lows will fall into the upper 60s to mid 70s each night. 17 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Scattered convection is anticipated to develop across Acadiana through the next couple hours as we reach peak diurnal heating. Storms may produce a brief period of lower vis and ceilings, however the area will generally experience VFR conditions through the period outside of convection. Winds will be light and VRB to north or northeast, expect at BPT where the sea breeze may push the direction SW. && .MARINE... Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A weak surface boundary will meander along the cost through Tuesday bringing a period of light offshore winds. This will also allow showers and storms to be possible through early in the week. The boundary will return north by Wednesday with light onshore winds resuming through late in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 67 86 69 86 / 0 20 10 10 LCH 72 88 72 87 / 10 10 0 10 LFT 72 89 73 88 / 0 30 0 20 BPT 74 92 74 91 / 20 10 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...05