011
FXUS64 KLCH 262346
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
646 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the area primarily under the
influence of high pressure centered over the Gulf, with a swrly
low-level flow in place over much of the forecast area so far
today. Water vapor imagery shows the mid/upper-level ridging which
had been in place over the region previously has now been shunted
back well west of the area, with the ern CONUS now generally under
troffing aloft. Meanwhile, a significant shortwave was noted
dropping through the lower MS Valley...this feature, along with a
sfc frontal boundary, helped fire an MCS earlier which is now on
the doorstep of our nrn zones. Recent 88D/satellite imagery show
this feature has been on a gradual weakening trend...however, the
now broken line of storms will be moving swd through the bulk of
the forecast area over the next few hours. Recent collab with SPC
indicates there will be no watch issuance for this activity due to
the weakening nature of the feature. Ahead of the line, typical
diurnal pop up convection has been noted across the area so far
today.

The main question of the first period of the forecast is what
becomes of the ongoing convection as it is moving much faster than
any guidance is advertising. And thereafter, will the lingering
boundary and any new boundaries have time to produce further
activity before heating wanes. All in all, am carrying some small
POP for the entire area prior to sunset to address these concerns.
Thereafter, blended guidance was finally advertising higher rain
chances, presumably due to this feature`s arrival...expecting
whatever lingering precip there is to gradually dissipate through
the evening. Various CAM guidance was then advertising perhaps a
2nd feature developing upstream and impacting mainly the nern
zones later tonight...have toned down POPs for then due to a lack
of certainty on what focus will drive this, but didn`t want to
pull rain chances altogether.

Elevated rain chances do return for Thursday afternoon as another
in a series of disturbances rounds the ern CONUS trof, possibly
cutting off to our east, while the sfc front is progged to sink
swd towards the forecast area. In addition, reasonable moisture
(mean RH values mostly around 60 percent although PWATs remain
high per forecast soundings) is forecast. The enhanced cloud
cover/precip should limit high temperatures to readings in the
lower 90s tomorrow. Combined with dewpoints in the 70s, heat index
values are progged to peak just below advisory criteria at this
time...thus no advisory is being planned at this time.

Friday sees the ridging aloft trying to build back over the
area...could see enough influence to limit rain chances to just a
slight chance across the far nrn/nwrn zones. Otherwise, looking at
another day of elevated rain chances, especially across the sern
zones where moisture looks best/capping looks least. Unfortunately
where the rain chances are least, the odds of reaching heat
advisory criteria returns with apparent temps peaking around 110F.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Upper level ridging will become reestablished overhead through the
first half of the weekend, and will then remain situated across the
south-central CONUS through the end of the forecast period. At the
surface, high pressure will meander around the northern Gulf Coast
through the weekend, providing a light onshore flow and a continuous
stream of Gulf moisture inland. Ridging aloft will cause
temperatures to soar through the weekend, with highs reaching into
the upper 90s inland and into the low to mid 90s elsewhere. Heat
indices will more than likely exceed advisory criteria for a good
portion of the area over the weekend as well.

Even with ridging overhead, our typical diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms can be expected throughout the weekend. For Saturday,
convection should be fairly isolated through the afternoon hours,
with Acadiana likely seeing the bulk of any activity. Sunday will
bring a similar isolated to widely scattered set up however, the
entire region will have at least a small chance of seeing a shower
or thunderstorm. Rain should taper off with sunset on Sat, while we
may see some convection linger a bit longer on Sunday.

Moving into the work week, a weak frontal boundary looks like it
will make it possible as far south as Alexandria before stalling out
for a brief period. This will provide some additional support for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms both Mon and Tues, but will be
fairly unnoticeable otherwise. Rain chances look like they will
continue to be best across Acadiana and the I-49 corridor each
afternoon, with lesser chances across SE TX and western LA.
Temperature wise, highs continue to top out in the mid to upper 90s
each day while overnight lows fall into the mid 70s to low 80s.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The remnants of an MCS continue to weaken across the area this
evening as it moves into LFT and ARA which may see light
precipitation over the next hour. VFR conditions expected to
prevail overnight although can`t rule out some light, patchy fog
in response to this afternoon`s precip. Otherwise, light
Southwesterly flow will prevail.

An upper level trof axis is expected to move through the region
Thursday with a weak frontal boundary which will provide a focus
for scattered thunderstorm development from mid morning through
early evening. Away from storms, generally light Southwesterly to
Westerly winds will prevail.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

No headlines are currently expected on the CWF over the coming
days as the area should continue to see a mainly light onshore
flow.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  92  73  94 /  40  60  10  30
LCH  78  92  79  91 /  30  60  20  40
LFT  78  91  78  92 /  30  60  30  70
BPT  78  94  79  93 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...66