715
FXUS64 KLCH 220451
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1151 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a broad ridge of high
pressure sprawling across much of the SE US. Meanwhile, a couple
of areas of disturbed weather are noted over the southern Gulf
into the western Caribbean, and also off the NE FL coast (neither
of which will cause trouble for our area).

At the surface, high pressure is centered over the mid-Atlantic
states, ridging west and southwest toward the southern plains.
Visible satellite imagery shows CU/TCU scattered across the area,
some of which are deep enough to support some widely scattered
showers (per latest KLCH radar images). Convection remains sparse
enough to be considered "hit or miss", and outside of areas cooled
by these showers, temperatures have risen into the lower 90s.
Humidity levels have stayed elevated enough to produce heat index
values from the upper 90s to lower 100s.

Coastal flooding will continue to diminish this evening as
easterly winds continue to relax. The coastal flood warning and
advisory will be allowed to expire at 7 PM with water levels
expected to recede. Water levels will rise again with high tide
Saturday morning, but peak crests are expected to be marginal and
would produce just some short-lived "nuisance" flooding on
roadways and in low-lying areas. Further inland, river flood
warnings along the lower reaches of the Sabine, Neches and
Calcasieu Rivers should be enough to account for the effects of
tides in addition to elevated flows from upstream.

Over the weekend, hot and humid conditions will be the primary
concern as the ridge aloft continues to build over the area.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The main story in the short term will be the ridging aloft and at
the surface. A surface ridge of high pressure will persist from
the mid Atlantic southwest across LA into E TX. This will produce
a generally light SE-S wind field over the region. Meanwhile, the
mid/upper ridge will continue to migrate southwest tonight into
Saturday, becoming centered over the region. Drier air aloft will
spread into the region, with PWATs falling to between roughly 1.3
and 1.6 inches, while midlevel RH values will be less than 40%
during the daytime. The warm, dry and subsident airmass will
suppress convection and, outside of a very isolated pop-up shower,
conditions should be hot and dry. High temperatures will climb
into the middle 90s across the area but, with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s mixing to the surface, apparent T/heat
indices should stay between 98 and 103 degrees.

Sunday is expected to be a near repeat of Saturday, although the
ridge aloft will continue to retrograde further west into TX, with
its main axis oriented southeast over the NW Gulf coast. This
should still be enough to keep rain chances low, however the cap
will weaken somewhat to allow some isolated to widely scattered
convection to form mainly across southern portions of the area,
driven by sea/bay breezes. Unfortunately, this will not be enough
to keep temperatures from soaring back into the middle 90s, with
upper 90s expected across interior SE TX into central LA. With
dewpoints not expected to be quite as low as on Saturday, max
apparent temps are expected to be between 100 and 106 degrees.
While this is still below criteria for a Heat Advisory,
individuals should use caution during outdoor activities (take
breaks, drink water, etc.), especially those who are sensitive or
unaccustomed to the heat.

Regarding the tropics, a weak trough or low is expected to
gradually emerge in the Bay of Campeche tonight into Saturday.
This system is expected to follow a track similar to Alberto, but
with the ridge of high pressure strengthening north of the
disturbance, the system is expected to remain weak, with the
strongest winds staying confined closer to its center and not as
broad as they were with Alberto. Thus, no local marine or coastal
impacts are expected from this disturbance.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The upper ridge will continue to retrograde westward toward the SW
states through the early part of the week. It will continue to be
elongated along the NW Gulf coast Monday, but begin to weaken on
Tuesday as shortwave energy digs south across OK/AR. By midweek, the
ridge will become more consolidated over the SW US, with a trough
developing over the east.

Moisture will begin to increase across the area with PWATs
climbing back to around 2 inches or greater. Minimal capping and
reduced convective temps, especially over eastern portions of the
area, will allow daily rain chances to increase through the
workweek. PoPs will be at the low end of the scattered spectrum on
Monday, gradually trending upward toward the 40 to 60 percent
range through the middle of the week. Outside of any cooling
showers, daytime temperatures are expected to reach the lower to
middle 90s each day. Increasing rh values will make things feel a
little more oppressive, with daily max heat index values
potentially climbing to between 105 and 110 degrees, and Heat
Advisories may be needed. Overnight temps will likely provide
little relief with lows only falling into the middle to upper 70s.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions ongoing and expected to prevail for the duration of
the TAF cycle. Due to the precip this afternoon and evening,
patchy fog will be possible overnight, however it is not expected
to be dense nor significantly impact the TAFs.
An upper ridge is building more into the region, which will help
in suppressing convection, however isolated showers are
certainly not out of the question for the late afternoon to
evening hours.
Stigger/87

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Winds and seas will continue to diminish tonight as the pressure
gradient across the region relaxes. Winds will gradually become
more southeast to south by late in the weekend into early next
week, with a light to moderate onshore flow to prevail through the
week. No headlines are anticipated for the coastal waters through
the next several days. High pressure aloft will limit
precipitation chances over the weekend into early next week.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  95  72  97 /  10   0   0  10
LCH  74  93  74  93 /  20   0   0  20
LFT  74  94  75  94 /  20  10   0  20
BPT  75  93  75  94 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...87