701
FXUS64 KLCH 260938
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
438 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

This mornings surface observational surface analysis indicates a
large continental high pressure airmass over the western Plains
expanding toward southern Texas with a frontal boundary extending
offshore of SW Pass to the Tex / Mex border. Special sounding 06z
sounding indicates subsidence strengthening down to the lower
troposphere with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s to upper 50s
across the area. High temperatures be much cooler than previously
experienced the past week trending in the low to mid 80s.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Helene is accelerating over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico with a landfall over the Big Bend area of Florida this
evening. As Helene nears landfall today, offshore winds from the
cold front will be further enhanced by the very deep pressure
field radiating from the hurricane. Winds will strengthen this
afternoon 15-20mph with some gusts 5-10mph greater  particularly
along the eastern Acadiana region. That said, there remains no
direct tropical impacts from Helene forecast over the local area
as the National Hurricane Center continues to keep strong
confidence in the present track well to our east.

As Helene weakens post landfall moving north into the Tennessee
Valley, winds will ease into Friday across SETX and SWLA while
keeping a northerly regime. Temperatures will remain very similar
toward the mid 80s. High pressure behind the front will broaden
over the southern Plains and western Gulf throughout the afternoon
while Helene slows progression over Tennessee into Saturday morning.
This shift in the pattern will further ease winds, becoming calm
or light variable northerlies. Daytime highs will trend closer to
90 F, but stay in the mid to upper 80s for the better part of
the day over interior TX and LA. Forecast upper air analysis stays
dry through the beginning of the weekend while the ridge pattern
over the area broadens further becoming slack by Sunday.

Kowalski / 30


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The remnants of an absorbed Helene will continue to meander over the
central Appalachians Sunday and Monday maintaining dry
Northwesterly flow both at the surface and aloft. The remnants
finally get pushed off to the Northeast Tuesday with an upper
ridge building into the area in it`s wake Wednesday. From a
sensible weather perspective, conditions will remain very uniform
day to day through the middle of next week with no precip,
afternoon highs each day in the upper 80s, overnight lows in the
mid to upper 60s and dewpoints consistently in the 60s.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Conditions will remain VFR through the remainder of the morning as
dry air, as indicated from overnight upper air sounding continues
to entrain into lower troposphere. N`ly Winds perturbed by
frontal boundary now extending offshore will increase through the
mid afternoon today in response to Helene moving toward an evening
landfall over the Florida Panhandle. These enhanced low level
winds will gradually decrease through Friday while skies remain
mostly precip free with ceilings absent or FEW above 25kft.

30


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Morning observational analysis of the few available offshore
stations indicate winds at least 20kt with gusts 5-10kts greater.
Expect the greatest build of seas to be within the 20-60nm waters.
Due note, secondary SE swells radiating from Helene will mix over
these water through the evening. A Small Craft Advisory will
remain in effect through at least 00Z Friday, with the Advisory
expected to continue over the eastern coastal waters zones through
12Z Friday as they gradually taper off from west to east.

Winds will gradually diminish on Friday and shift more westerly as
Helene moves inland over the southeast US. A light to moderate
westerly flow will continue into the weekend, but no additional
headlines are anticipated at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  60  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  84  64  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  85  64  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  88  64  87  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ452-455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...30