642
FXUS64 KLCH 140955
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
455 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through tomorrow night)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Currently the upper level ridge is centered over parts of northern
Mexico and west Texas up to the panhandle. Its influence can be
felt over most of the CWA, however we have seen a few isolated
showers over the furthest eastern Parishes and marine zones.

Saturday morning and afternoon, the ridge will be directly
overhead and moving eastward. Little to no showers will be likely,
with sunny / clear skies. By Saturday night the ridge will be
centered  over the Southeastern States with isolated PoPs not out
of the question for that night and into Sunday morning.

Temperatures will be above climo norms and increasing over the
period. Highs today will be in the mid 90s; tomorrows highs will
be in the mid to upper 90s. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
Dewpoints do not really recover until the long term period.
Apparent temperatures will be below advisory criteria,
nevertheless we recommend heat sensitive populations to be
cautious.
Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Isolated to numerous PoPs are on tap for the entire forecast
period in response to an area of low pressure that is expected
form and move west across the Gulf from Sunday into late into
that work week. NHC highlighted the Bay of Campeche with a 40
percent chance of development. Regardless of development, the
moisture from this system will bring with it a chance for locally
heavy rainfall and a threat of flooding.

There is still some disagreement as to how far north the rich plume
of tropical moisture will move. We will still be facing a
multiday flood threat over the early to mid week period. PWATs
along the coast on Sunday are in the 1.8 to 2.2 inch range.
Monday thru Thursday, they are in the 2.2 to 2.5 inch range.
Friday, they are greater model differences however the general
consensus is that the disturbance will move further west into
Mexico, dragging that plume of moisture further away from the CWA.
As of this update, the highest QPF totals over the entire long
term are in the 6 to 8 inch range along the coast with 2 to 4
further inland. These numbers are subject to change and locally
higher amounts will be possible.

There is a Slight (lvl 2 of 4) to Marginal Risk (lvl 1 of 4) of
excessive rainfall on day 3 (Sunday) with Marginal Risk areas on
days 4 and 5 (Monday&Tuesday). Keep in mind that the potential
for greater and or additional flood threats will exist over this
period.
Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Skies are mostly clear across the area, although some cirrus
north of the region could be streaming over the area overnight.
While some patchy ground fog cannot be ruled out, the overall risk
for any vsby related impacts is low. Winds will be light and
variable tonight, then northeasterly 5-8 KT after 15Z Friday, with
FEW to SCT CU again developing during the day.

24

&&

.MARINE...

Light offshore flow will prevail through Saturday. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will return by Saturday as Gulf moisture
slowly moves northward. Precipitation chances increase significantly
Sunday through most of next week as additional moisture from the Southern
Gulf of Mexico advances northward. East to southeast winds expected
to increase near or above 20 knots, along with increasing seas, beginning
Monday, and remain near this level for the remainder of the period.
This prolonged east to southeasterly fetch will likely cause increasing
tides, with minor coastal flooding possible. Small Craft Advisories
will be likely necessary during this time period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  69  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  93  74  95  75 /   0   0  10   0
LFT  95  75  97  76 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  95  74  96  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...87