312
FXUS64 KLCH 150814
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
314 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A weak surface boundary, basically a dew point delineation axis
from dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s, is located from the
lakes area of upper southeast Texas to the middle Atchafalaya
Basin. With northwest flow aloft, a disturbance is working with
higher moisture of 2 inch PWAT along the boundary and theta-e
axis to produce clusters of showers and a few storms along it
moving to the southeast.

This boundary will continue to sink to the south and reach the
coast by the end of the day, initial shower activity decreasing
ahead of it by mid morning, then redeveloping later in the
afternoon with daytime heating and the arrival of the next
disturbance.

Surface boundary will stall along the coast for Monday into
Tuesday. Meanwhile, a surface low, with some tropical or sub-
tropical potential will head toward the South and North Carolina
coast. Developing northeast flow over the southeast US will help
bring a remnant mid level low back to the southwest and into the
region before it is absorbed into the Carolina system to produce a
broad trough just east of the forecast area.

The combination of the old surface boundary and upper level
trough, will bring a continuation of shower or storm chances,
mainly during the afternoon during the early part of the week. The
best chance will be over eastern portions of the forecast area,
and on Monday.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Upper level ridging will begin to build into the forecast area on
Wednesday as the broad Mid-Atlantic trough moves northward into
the northeast US. The ridge will strengthen and hold over the
immediate area through the end of the week with very little if any
chance for rain and above normal temperatures.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A frontal pattern stalling as it moves offshore through the
remainder of the nocturnal hours has been the focal region for
diminishing VCTS / RA moving S to SSE. Behind the front slightly
cooler temperatures and dewpoints will generally keep conditions
VFR into the twilight hours. That said, with some fresh moisture
on the surface, patchy FG or ground BR is possible between the
twilight hours through sunrise. Thereafter, brief patches of BR /
FG will quickly lift with diurnal ceilings remaining SCT to BKN
through the mid- afternoon- mainly above 5kft. Guidance suggest
moisture convergence may allow for convection during mid morning
through mid afternoon across eastern sites along Acadiana.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Mainly light and variable winds over the coastal waters this early
morning. A weak surface boundary will move into the coastal waters
later today, then stall along or just offshore through Tuesday.
This will bring a period of light offshore flow to go along with
low seas. There will be a chance for a few showers or storms along
this boundary, mainly during the late morning through early
evening for the near shore waters, then late at night into the
early morning for the offshore waters.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  68  85  68 /  10  10  30   0
LCH  87  72  88  71 /  30  10  20   0
LFT  88  72  88  73 /  20  10  40   0
BPT  92  73  92  73 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30