898
FXUS64 KLCH 210822
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
322 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)

Wx map shows generally a relaxing pressure gradient compared to
yesterday across the Northern Gulf of Mexico, with the Bermuda
High firmly established over the Eastern U.S. Radar not showing
much precipitation this morning, with only a couple of showers off
the Texas coast. Temperatures in the lower to mid 70s along and
north of I-10, with mid to upper 70s further south.

Tides will remain high this morning. A Coastal Flood Warning
continues through 7 PM for Cameron Parish and Lower Jefferson
County for water levels between 2.0 and 2.5 feet MHHW, and
Southern Calcasieu Parish & Southern Orange County for water
levels 1.5 to 2.0 feet MHHW. A Coastal Flood Advisory continues
through 7 PM for Lower Vermilion, Lower Iberia, and Lower St. Mary
parishes for water levels 1.5 and 2.0 feet MHHW. While water
levels will likely remain elevated tonight and this weekend, they
are expected to fall below warning and advisory criteria for the
next high tide cycle tonight into Saturday morning.

Expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon.
Afternoon highs expected to reach the lower to mid 90s. Maximum
heat index values expected in the 100-105 range. The precipitation
expected to diminish by sunset, with lows tonight in the lower to
mid 70s.

For Saturday and Sunday, the large mid to upper level ridge of
high pressure expected to intensify and move over the region. The
subsidence from this high is expected to limit precipitation
chances to less than 20% during the afternoon hours. Highs in the
mid to upper 90s expected. Maximum heat index values expected in
the 102-107 range, getting close to the Heat Advisory Criteria of
108.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)

Hot and humid temperatures will be the main story this week as a
broad, upper-level ridge builds from the west into the Gulf. Highs
will be in the mid- to upper 90s, with dew points in the mid-70s. We
could even see some widespread triple digits in central Louisiana.
This combo will lead to heat index values just below heat advisory
levels, but that could change if the axis of the ridge shifts
farther north. PoPs will be diurnally driven for most of the
week, with afternoon showers and pulse thunderstorms. With the
ridge being stronger to the west, Acadiana can expect more showers
than the rest of the region. Around mid-week, an upper-level
trough will dig south as the ridge retrogrades. Both the GFS and
Euro bring widespread showers to the area. The widespread rain
will also do wonders to drop our temperatures back to the
climatological averages of the low 90s.

14/Slaughter

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)

East winds picking up near 12-15 kts with gusts 20-23 kts at
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA by 15z through the afternoon, diminishing to 5-7
kts after 00z. Afternoon SHRA expected between 20-24z, but with
chances around 30% left just VCSH. For AEX, slightly lower winds
expected, with no mention of VCSH. VFR expected to prevail
through the period.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will gradually diminish today as the pressure
gradient relaxes. Winds will gradually become more southeast to
south by late in the weekend into early next week. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon. High pressure aloft will limit precipitation chances
Saturday through early next week.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  72  95  72 /  10  10   0   0
LCH  91  74  93  75 /  30  20   0   0
LFT  92  73  94  74 /  30  20  10   0
BPT  91  76  93  75 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073-074-
     241.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT early this morning for
     GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...08