Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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960 FXUS64 KLCH 200255 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 955 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 955 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Minor adjustments were made to the POP grids over the next few hours as a few light showers continue to pop up in our moist low- level airmass over mainly the swrn zones. Otherwise, inherited grids/zones look in good shape as is per recent obs/trends/newer guidance. No adjustments were made to ongoing headlines as well. Update out shortly. 25 && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Tropical Storm Alberto is moving west across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, poised to make landfall along the Mexican coast late tonight into early Thursday morning. While convection continues to become better defined around the center of the system, suggesting a little better organization, the storm continues to display a large and asymmetric wind field over the western Gulf, along with some bands of convection over the NW Gulf of Mexico and coastal waters adjacent to LCH/HGX. The primary impacts from this system continues to be significant coastal flooding along Jefferson County and Cameron Parish. Water levels late this afternoon continue to run close to 2.5 feet MHHW at Texas Point and between 2.0 and 2.5 feet MHHW at Calcasieu Pass. Even inland, water levels have exceeding flood criteria with Bulk Terminal on the Calcasieu River near 2.0 feet MHHW, Lake Charles 1.9 feet MHHW and Port Arthur and Bridge City between 2.0 and 2.5 feet MHHW. The good news is that the heavy rainfall potential expected the past couple of days has not been as heavy or widespread as originally thought. KLCH radar shows a band of showers and storms over the coastal waters beyond 20 NM, while further inland convection has been minimal, with some scattered small showers now developing across central and southern LA. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The latest guidance for TS Alberto now has the outer edge of TS force winds to the southwest of our coastal waters, and winds should gradually taper off through Friday, especially once the system begins to deteriorate after landfall. Aloft, ridging centered over the mid-Atlantic will build southwest across the area the next couple of days. Regarding the risk for coastal flooding, the Coastal Flood Warning has been extended inland to include areas around Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes in southern Orange County and Calcasieu Parish. While water levels will fall some tonight during low tide, P-ETSS guidance indicates tide levels climbing back to between 2 to 2.5 FT MHHW at Texas Point and Calcasieu Pass and between 1.5 and 2.0 FT MHHW further inland around Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes at times of high tide late tonight into Thursday morning. Similarly for points further east, water levels will again pose the potential for minor coastal flooding across portions of lower Saint Mary and Iberia Parishes around time of high tide early Thursday so the Advisory will also remain in effect. As the high aloft builds over the region, deep flow over the region will become more easterly, with moisture, while abundant, not nearly as prolific as it has been. PWATs will trend below the 90th percentile and probably closer to the climo mean. This will result in a transition toward a more seasonal pattern the next couple of days, with more scattered and diurnally-forced convection forming along the seabreeze and other mesoscale boundaries. Saturday appears to be the driest of the days in the short term as weak capping develops aloft, which should help limit shower coverage. With decreasing cloud cover and more scattered showers each afternoon, daytime temperatures are expected to warm back to near seasonal levels, in the lower 90s. With strengthening high pressure aloft and reduced convection on Saturday, high temperatures are expected to climb back into the middle 90s across the northern half of the area with lower 90s for the southern areas. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 At the beginning of the long term, we will have a broad upper level ridge extending across the Gulf Coast / Southeast States. This will be shunted off to the Desert Southwest over the weekend, where it will stay for most of the next work week, however some of its influence will be felt over interior SETX and CenLA. Another broad area of low pressure has a 30% chance of development in the Bay of Campeche this weekend. It is expected to move WNW to NW over the period. Thanks to the ridge, this system and its associated tropical moisture is expected to stay well offshore. Therefore no direct impacts are likely. Nevertheless, near daily isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected over the CWA. With most of the activity being diurnally driven, we can expect our normal summer pattern with showers and storms starting in the afternoon then beginning to taper in the evening hours each day. Temperatures will be (and feel) summerlike. MaxTs will be in the mid to upper 90s with MinTs in the 70s. Dewpoints will be in the 70s as well, making it plenty humid. Stigger/87 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 A mix of VFR and MVFR noted amid SCT/BKN CU across the area today. KLCH radar currently pretty quiet although visible satellite suggests some deeper CU beginning to form across southern LA and SE TX which could lead to some scattered SHRA/TSRA through the afternoon. Kept just a VC mention at all sites for today. Otherwise, easterly winds will prevail with sustained speeds at the southern terminals 13-18 KT with gusts as high as 25-30 KT at times. Further north at AEX, winds will not be quite as strong, generally 12G20KT. Convection should diminish this evening, with VFR to prevail overnight. A few showers or storms developing over the nearshore waters late tonight/early Thursday could spread inland toward BPT after daybreak. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Tropical Storm Alberto in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will continue to move west toward the Mexican coast through early Thursday. Strong easterly winds will persist, but should slowly diminish over the next day or two. With tropical storm force winds now expected to stay southwest of our waters, the Tropical Storm Warning has been cancelled and replaced with a Small Craft Advisory. While a few gusts to gale force will be possible, they should mainly be confined to pockets of convection and have opted not to issue a Gale Warning for the outer waters. Winds will gradually become more southeast to south by late in the weekend into early next week. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 92 70 93 / 30 10 0 10 LCH 76 90 73 91 / 20 50 20 50 LFT 77 91 75 93 / 20 50 10 50 BPT 78 92 75 92 / 30 50 30 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ073-074-241. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ252>254. TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ615-616. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ430-432-435- 436-450-452-455-470-472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...24