343
FXUS64 KLCH 141926
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
226 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The remnants of Francine continues to swirl around northern MS and
AL this afternoon with a weak boundary draped southwest into
Central and SE LA. The weak convergence caused by the boundary is
producing a few showers from Vernon Parish through the Atchafalaya
Basin. Aloft, the area is roughly between a ridge over TX and an
East Coast trough, however the ridge is the bigger influence in
the area locally.

Through the remainder of the afternoon a few showers and storms
will be possible, but more so from the lakes area through Acadiana
with the diffuse boundary in the vicinity. This boundary is
expected to drift south through tonight and into Sunday.

Additional isolated showers and storms will be possible toward
the coast early Sunday before the weak boundary gradually stalls
along the shore in the afternoon. Isolated sea breeze convection
may also occur Sunday afternoon. Ever so slightly lower dewpoints
will also filter back into the southern zones for Sunday into
Monday.

Isolated to scattered diurnal convection will be possible in LA
Monday. The upper ridge is anticipated to shift slightly west
while the remnants of Francine move closer and weaken farther in
response to a forming area of low pressure near the Carolina
coast. The tropical remnants will gradually fill through Monday
night and into the extended.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

On Tuesday the forecast area will be situated between ridging aloft
just to the west and troughing to the east, with a NWrly flow aloft
between these two features. At the surface, a weak stationary
boundary is expected to be situated along the coast, with low
pressure near the MS/AL coast. Troughing/low pressure to our east
will result in scattered showers and storms across much of the Gulf
Coast on Tuesday. Across the forecast area, the eastern most parts
of the CWA will likely see some isolated to scattered shower
activity on Tuesday, while further west dry conditions are expected.

For the remainder of the long term, we transition to a dry pattern
as upper ridging shift east and becomes situated across the Ark-La-
Tex region while weak surface high pressure meanders across the Gulf
Coast. No precip and minimal cloud cover are on tap through much of
next week, with little day to day changes expected. Temperatures
will warm into the upper 80s to low 90s each day, while overnight
lows will fall into the mid 60s to low 70s.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Patchy MVFR ceilings continue into mid day however ceilings are
anticipated to improve. Isolated showers will be possible this
afternoon which may again provide periods of lower ceilings and
vis for a few hours, but the evening is expected to remain VFR.
Winds will be light and generally SW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A weak pressure pattern will be found across the northwest Gulf
for the remainder of the weekend into early next week. This will
bring about light winds and low seas. A few showers or
thunderstorms will be possible as a weak surface boundary lingers
near the coast.

Rua
05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  86  68  85 /  10  10  10  30
LCH  73  87  72  88 /  10  20   0  10
LFT  72  88  72  88 /  30  10   0  30
BPT  74  90  73  91 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...05